SUPPLY-CHAIN DISRUPTIONS IMPACT ON INFLATION : COMPARATIVE EVIDENCE FROM SOUTH KOREA, THE UNITED STATES, CHINA, AND JAPAN
- 주제(키워드) Inflation , Global supply chain pressure index , Food prices , Energy prices , Supply chain disruption
- 주제(DDC) 658.18
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 Chang, Byeong Yun
- 발행년도 2026
- 학위수여년월 2026. 2
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 경영대학원 국제경영학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000035884
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
This study examines how global supply-chain disruptions affect inflation in South Korea, the United States, China, and Japan. The question became more important after the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war, when many supply chains were severely disrupted. Supply-chain disruption is measured by the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. Supply-chain disruption often occurs at the same time as changes in global commodity markets. The analysis also includes the food price index measured by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the World Bank energy price index. The data are monthly from January 1998 to April 2025. The analysis uses multiple regression models with time series and panel data, and local-projection impulse responses to study the short-run impact of supply chain disruption on inflation. The results show that supply-chain disruptions tend to raise inflation in all four countries. However, the direct effect of the supply chain disruption is small and disappears quickly when food and energy prices are included. Four countries’ strong markets, policies, and import systems reduce the impact of the supply chain disruption. Japan’s inflation does not move much when supply-chain disruption, food, and energy shocks occur, which suggests a stronger supply chain structure. Overall, the findings indicate that supply-chain disruptions do contribute to inflation, but not sustained for a long period. Policy should therefore monitor supply- chain indicators as an early warning of inflation. Keywords: Inflation, Global supply chain pressure index, Food prices, Energy prices.
more목차
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Statement of the problem 5
1.3 Purpose of the study 5
1.4 Significance of the study 6
1.5 Limitations of the study. 7
CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW 8
2.1 Theoretical framework: Cost-push theory 8
2.2 Global inflation events and supply-chain disruption 9
2.3 Supply-chain disruption and transmission to prices 10
2.4 Global supply-chain pressure and inflation 10
2.5 Macroeconomic variables 11
2.6 Need for a unified comparative framework 11
CHAPTER III: METHODOLOGY AND DATA 13
3.1 Methodology 13
3.2 Data 16
3.3 Variable description 16
3.4 Hypotheses and conceptual framework 18
CHAPTER IV: EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 21
4.1 Model specification and estimation result 21
4.2 South Korea 22
4.3 United States 24
4.4 China 26
4.5 Japan 29
4.6 Panel Fixed-Effects Estimates 30
4.7 Classical Assumption Tests 33
4.8 Local projection impulse response function. 34
4.9 Robustness and synthesis of findings 39
CHAPTER V: DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION 41
5.1 Discussion 41
5.2 Conclusion 43
REFERENCES 45
APPENDICES 49
