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CARBON BORDERS AND TRADE : ASSESSING THE EARLY IMPACT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION’S CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM (CBAM) ON SOUTH KOREA’S EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS

초록/요약

This study examines the early effects of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on South Korea’s export competitiveness. As a carbon pricing instrument targeting high-emission imports, CBAM presents significant challenges for export-oriented economies with differing climate policy frameworks. This research uses a multi-method econometric design, including Difference-in-Differences (DiD), Fixed Effects, Lagged Effects, System GMM estimators, and Trade Diversion analysis to assess immediate and evolving trade responses. The findings indicate that carbon-pricing variables such as Ad_Valorem_Tax and CBAM_Tax_Interaction exert significant downward pressure on export volumes, while procedural compliance variables remain statistically insignificant. These results suggest that exporters respond more to tangible price signals than non-binding regulatory requirements. Empirical evidence from dynamic models highlights the role of export inertia and delayed firm adaptation, reinforcing anticipatory adaptation theory and the Pollution Haven Hypothesis. Moreover, the trade diversion analysis identifies a marginal shift in exports from the European Union toward less-regulated markets, notably the United States. By offering one of the earliest panel-based evaluations of CBAM’s effects on a high-income Asian exporter, this study contributes to the evolving literature on climate- linked trade governance. It provides timely policy guidance for enhancing carbon- aligned competitiveness.

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목차

CHAPTER ONE I. Introduction 1
1.1. Background of the Study 1
1.2 Statement of Problem 4
1.3 Purpose of Study 5
1.4 Research Objectives 6
1.5 Significance of Study 6
1.6 Limitations of the Study 7
CHAPTER TWO II. Literature Review and Theoretical Framework 9
2.1 Introduction and Overview 9
2.2 Theoretical and Conceptual Framework 12
2.2.1 Carbon Leakage 12
2.2.2 Pollution Haven Hypothesis 13
2.2.3 Porter Hypothesis 14
2.2.4 Trade Competitiveness Theory 15
2.2.5 Conceptual Framework 17
2.3 Empirical Studies on CBAM's Trade Impact 18
2.4 South Korea's Carbon Pricing and Competitiveness 20
2.5 Policy Implications and Firm-Level Adaptation 21
2.6 Dynamic Panel Methods in Trade and Climate Studies 23
2.7 Research Gaps and Contribution of This Study 24
CHAPTER THREE III. Data and Methodology 26
3.1 Overview and Empirical Strategy 26
3.2 Data Description and Sources 26
3.3 Variables and Model Specification 27
3.4 Estimation Strategy 29
3.4.1 Difference-in-Differences (DiD) Model 29
3.4.2 Fixed Effects Model 30
3.4.3 Lagged Policy Effects Model 31
3.4.4 Arellano-Bond & System GMM Dynamic Panel Model 32
3.4.5 Industry-Specific Effects Regression 34
3.5 Estimation and Robustness 35
3.6 Summary of Methodology 35
CHAPTER FOUR IV. Results and Discussion 37
4.1 Overview of Findings 37
4.2 Descriptive Trends of CBAM-Affected Exports by Sector 37
4.2.1 Iron & Steel 38
4.2.2 Aluminum 38
4.2.3 Fertilizers 39
4.2.4 Cement 40
4.3 Econometric Assessment of CBAM's Trade Effects 41
4.3.1 DiD Estimates 41
4.3.2 CBAM Cost Regression Analysis 43
4.3.3 Fixed Effects Model Results 45
4.3.4 Lagged Effects Analysis 46
4.3.5 Arellano-Bond and System GMM Dynamic Panel Model Results 48
4.3.6 Industry-Specific Effects Regression 51
4.3.7 Trade Diversion Regression 53
4.4 Discussion of Empirical Findings and Theoretical Implications 55
CHAPTER FIVE V Conclusion and Policy Recommendations 59
5.1 Summary of Key Findings 59
5.2 Theoretical Contributions 61
5.3 Policy Recommendations 62
5.4 Study Limitations 64
5.5 Conclusion and Suggestions for Future Research 65
REFERENCES 67
APPENDICES 72
Appendix A: HS Codes Used in CBAM-Sensitive Sectors 72
Appendix B: HS Codes Used for Non-CBAM Sectors 74

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