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ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF INTRODUCING SOLAR PV SYSTEM FOR POWERING WATER DESALINATION PLANT IN EGYPT

초록/요약

Climate change is an urgent global challenge primarily driven by the surge in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It is characterized by rising global temperatures, altered weather patterns, and resources depletion, exerting crucial impacts across environmental, social, economic, and geopolitical domains. In Egypt, recent years have seen a rise in energy demand predominantly fueled by natural gas and oil, leading to increased GHG emissions, especially in electricity generation which is responsible for about 40% of Egypt's emissions in 2018. Simultaneously, water demand is on the rise, exacerbated by limited freshwater resources, climate change impacts, and threats of upstream dam construction on the Nile River. These challenges are driven by population growth, urbanization, and industrial expansion. The Egyptian government is responding with ambitious goals, including a 33% reduction target in electricity sector emissions by 2030, and significant desalination capacity expansion by 2050 to face water shortage as the annual share of water per capita in Egypt dropped to 550 m3/cap/year in 2022 under the international standards of 1000 m3/cap/year and the yearly water shortage is about 21 billion cubic meters (BCM), all aimed at addressing energy and water demands while fostering sustainability and climate change impact mitigation. Desalination is classified as an energy-intensive process with a high carbon footprint and the energy costs represent a high ratio of the desalination costs that hinder its expansion. Thus, the main objective of this research is to investigate the economic and environmental impacts of using solar energy to serve the load of a real case study seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant in Egypt over several scenarios to find the most economically feasible and eco-friendly solution. HOMER PRO software was used for conducting the simulation and optimization process for the evaluation of the proposed configurations based on the net present cost (NPC) and cost of energy (COE) with assessing environmental impacts. Two hybrid grid-tied power generation systems that contain the grid and the PV with 40% and 80% of renewable energy fractions, in addition to a standalone PV system with backup batteries (100% renewable energy fraction) were proposed and compared with the current baseline case that only supplied by the utility grid to serve the investigated plant load. The environmental assessment results of scenarios showed that renewable penetration offers a significant reduction of GHGs, reducing the carbon footprint of the desalination process and contributes to climate change goals of Egypt. Economically, the grid-tied PV systems showed possible viable economic results, especially with a high renewable fraction of 80% PV configuration that reduced the net present cost (NPC) and the cost of Energy (COE) by approximately 53.06% and 65.78%, respectively compared to the base case values which can increase the cost-effectiveness of the desalination process. The economic results are expected to be more feasible by the success of the technology development in reducing the costs and increasing the efficiency of solar PV panels in the near future. Thus, renewable-powered desalination can have the potential to support environmental sustainability, long-term socio-economic benefits, and strengthening water and energy security. KEYWORDS: Climate change, GHGs, Energy demand, Reduction target, Solar energy, HOMER Pro, Renewable powered desalination, Water, and energy security.

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목차

Chapter 1. Introduction 1
Chapter 2. Background of Egypt’s energy and water sector 4
2.1 Egypt Energy Overview 5
2.1.1 Total energy supply and final consumption 5
2.1.2 Petroleum and other liquids 6
2.1.3 Natural Gas 7
2.1.4 Nuclear 8
2.1.5 Egypt electricity and renewable energy potentials 9
2.2 Emissions and NDCs 12
2.3 Egypt water sector 14
2.3.1 Desalination Potential 15
2.3.2 Desalination goals 17
2.3.3 Renewable Powered Desalination 17
Chapter 3. Review of Literature 20
Chapter 4. Methodology 26
4.1 HOMER Pro Software 27
4.2 Specifications of SWRO desalination plant (Case study) 28
4.3 Site resources 29
4.3.1 Solar resource 29
4.3.2 Temperature 30
4.4 The load demand of the desalination plant and the operation time 31
4.5 System configurations 32
4.5.1 The Utility Grid for meeting the load of the SWRO plant (Base line scenario) 33
4.5.2 Grid-tied solar PV systems (grid+PV) with different renewable fractions 33
4.5.3 Standalone PV system with backup batteries to meet the load of SWRO plant 34
4.6 Components Properties 34
4.6.1 Solar photovoltaics 34
4.6.2 Converter 35
4.6.3 Battery storage properties 35
4.7 Economic analysis 36
4.7.1 Net present cost (NPC) 36
4.7.2 Levelized cost of energy (COE) 37
4.7.3 Discount rate 37
4.7.4 Salvage value 37
4.7.5 Return on investment (ROI) 37
4.7.6 payback 37
4.8 Environmental assessment 38
4.8.1 Emissions 38
4.8.2 Renewable fraction (RF) 39
Chapter 5. Results of optimization and discussion 40
5.1 Configuration scenarios 40
5.2 Baseline scenario (Fully powered by utility grid) 40
5.2.1 Electrical summary of the baseline scenario 40
5.2.2 Baseline scenario environmental assessment 42
5.3 Scenario 1 Grid-tied solar PV system (PV+Grid) with renewable fraction 40% 42
5.3.1 Scenario 1 electrical summary 43
5.3.2 Economic assessment of scenario 1 46
5.3.3 Scenario 1 environmental assessment 48
5.4 Scenario 2 Grid-tied solar PV system (PV+Grid) with renewable fraction 80% 48
5.4.1 Scenario 2 electrical summary 48
5.4.2 Economic assessment of scenario 2 51
5.4.3 Scenario 2 environmental assessment 53
5.5 Scenario 3 Standalone PV system with batteries (100% renewable fraction) 53
5.5.1 Scenario 3 Electrical Summary 53
5.5.2 Economic assessment of scenario 3 55
5.5.3 Scenario 3 environmental assessment 57
5.6 Assessment analysis of scenarios 57
5.6.1 Economic analysis 57
5.6.2 Environmental analysis 59
5.7 Expected additional benefits of the study 62
5.7.1 Carbon credits 62
5.7.2 Duck curve 62
Chapter 6. Conclusion and Recommendations 64
References 66

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