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FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF GRID-CONNECTED HYDROPOWER PLANT PROJECT IN TANZANIA USING RETSCREEN EXPERT : A CASE STUDY OF UPPER KIHANSI 200 MW HYDROPOWER PLANT IN MOROGORO REGION

초록/요약

Abstract Any country’s ability to run its transportation and industry efficiently and affordably is a key factor in its ability to thrive economically. East Africa’s nations is among the developing country including Tanzania. In 2022, August its population was 61million people and was classified as a middle-income country in 2020, with a growth rate of 4.3 %( World Bank, 2020). Despite having natural resources including 38GW from hydro, the country has experienced considerable load shedding of electricity supply for the past ten years which has slowed economic progress (Kichonge, 2018). Only 707MW of the total capacity of 1605MW in the country has been used to generate power while the peak demand is around 1600MW for a day, falling short of the worldwide goal of producing carbon-free energy by 2050. However, the government is concentrating on generation power mix to raise installed capacity to 10GW by 2035 in order to ameliorate the challenge of power scarcity through its electricity generation master plan. Additionally, the government can spend money building hydroelectric plant which would benefit from the country’s southern region’s year-round availability of several river streams. The Morogoro region in the southern part of the nation is home to the proposed study of the Upper Kihansi hydropower 200MW grid-connected, which will use storage dam technology in the river Rufiji, increase installed capacity to the grid, accelerate economic growth of the nation, and help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as part of the climate change agenda. The upper Kihansi 200MW hydropower project is one of the domestic option for low-cost operations compared to thermal power plant. It is also clean energy, and this study uses RETScreen Expert modelling to perform the feasibility of the project. It will use potential status of hydropower in Tanzania for the development of future generation.

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목차

Chapter 1: Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Thesis Statement 3
1.3 Electricity as source of country economy growth 4
1.4 Methodology 5
1.5 The main objective and specific objectives. 5
1.5.1 Objectives 6
1.6 The main structure of the thesis 6
Chapte: Literature review 7
2.1 Backgrour 2nd 7
2.2 Hydro power technology systems 9
2.2.1 Classification by Technology 10
2.3 Tanzania Energy situation 11
2.3.1 Tanzania power production. 11
2.3.2 Thermal power plants status 12
2.3.3 Hydropower plant status in Tanzania 13
2.3.4 Importance of constructing hydro power plant in Tanzania for future generation 14
2.3.5 The energy policy and power master plan in Tanzania 15
2.3.6 Hydropower resources assessment in Tanzania 16
2.3.7 Hydropower resources status 16
2.4 Barriers and solution in hydropower development in Tanzania 17
2.4.1 Hydrology status in Tanzania 18
2.4.2 Effects of Climate Change on Hydropower Generations. 18
2.4.3 Policy and regulation towards hydropower development in Tanzania 19
2.4.4 Tanzania electricity price according to (EWURA, 2021). Both price are VAT Excluded 20
2.4.5 Power consumption by purpose in reference for towards Tanzanian policy 21
2.4.6 Electricity rate in comparison to Tanzania towards its policy 21
2.4.7 Ongoing hydropower plant projects. 23
2.5 Challenges happened in New Zealand hydro power plant in lesson to Tanzania 23
2.5.1 Sediment management in New Zealand 24
2.5.2 Environmental impacts in New Zealand alongside the down and upstream the storage 25
2.6 Challenges of hydropower in EU in lesson to Tanzania as a developing country. 25
2.6.1 Albania 25
2.6.2 Poland 26
2.6.3 The success of hydropower plant in Norway 26
Chapter 3: Methodology 30
3.1 Introduction 30
3.2 RET Screen Expert software 30
3.3 The collected data 32
3.3.1 Facility and climate data recorded per year in Morogoro region 32
3.3.2 Flow rate data 33
3.3.3 Head of the facility hydropower plant 35
3.3.4 The domestic electricity price in Tanzania VAT excluded 37
3.3.5 Incentives and grants for initial investment of 4 Pelton type turbines engine technology 39
3.3.6 Different data collected from the existing kihansi power plant since 2018 to 2022 as reference for the proposed project. 39
3.3.7 Recorded emission in Tanzania in tCO2 41
3.3.8 Expected outcome of the proposed facility 42
Chapter 4: Simulation Results and Tables 44
4.1 Bench mark 44
4.2 Executive summary 45
4.3 Sensitivity, risk and financial viability analysis of the project. 47
4.4 The Net present value 47
4.5 Technical analysis and evaluation 50
4.5.1 Maximum tail water effect 50
4.5.2 Residue flow 50
4.5.3 Efficient adjustment 51
4.5.4 Design coefficient 51
4.5.5 Firm flow 51
4.5.6 Flow-duration curve data analysis 52
4.5.7 Turbine efficiency curve data 52
4.5.8 Number of jet for impulse turbine 53
4.5.9 Turbine efficient analysis. 53
4.5.10 Flow duration and power curves 54
4.5.11 Available flow adjustment factor 55
4.5.12 Capacity factor 56
4.5.13 GHG reduction value 56
4.6 Energy production cost/ Levelized Cost Of Electricity or LCOE 58
4.7 Level of risk for project 58
Chapter 5: Conclusion and Recommendations 59
5.1 Conclusion 59
5.2 Limitation and challenges 60
5.3 Recommendations 60
References 62

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