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Integrating Electric Vehicles in Fiji’s Land Transport Sector: A Policy Approach Using GCAM-EML

초록/요약

Fiji’s energy demand is driven dominantly by the transport sector which consumes 60% of the total petroleum consumption in the country. The over dependency on fossil fuels by the Transport sector, especially from the land transport, is largely contributing to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and related pollutants and added costs to the economy. Fiji has in point of fact set ambitious targets in its National Strategies to reduce its GHG emissions with a predominate focus on the transport sector and plans to deploy Electric Vehicles (EVs) as one of the measures to achieve its targets. Despite EVs status as being energy conservative and more environmentally friendly, deployment of EVs will not be without challenges. Fiji’s current policy’s related to EVs are inadequate to mitigate those challenges and realize mass integration of EVs at this juncture. A more defined and committed strategical approach by Fiji is needed in order to support EVs, therefore, this thesis intends to develop recommendations and strategies which will contribute to a successful market adoption of EVs by exploring policy options of EV penetration in Fiji. The study examines near and long-term implications of these policies options through the GCAM-EML Integrated Assessment Model and explores three explorative policy scenarios (Reference, Fuel Economy Shift and Tax Regulation Shift) to instigate their effect on EV uptake. The modelled scenarios are assessed based on their implications on passenger subsector service demand, energy demand, fuel technology switch and corresponding carbon dioxide emissions for short term (2020 to 2030) and long term (2030 to 2060) periods. Findings demonstrate that both push and pull polices will have positive effect on EV penetration in Fiji’s the transport sector albeit at different efficacy and without any policy development EV growth in Fiji will be obtuse.

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목차

Chapter 1 Introduction 1
Chapter 2 Background of Fiji's Energy and Transport Sector 6
2.1 Fiji's Energy Sector Situation 6
2.1.1 Energy Supply and Demand 6
2.1.2 Electricity Sector 8
2.2 Fiji's Land Transport Sector 11
2.2.1 Land Transport Institutional Structure and Infrastructure 11
2.2.2 Transport Sector Energy Consumption 13
2.2.3 Transport Sector GHG Emission and Mitigation Policies 14
2.2.4 Land Transport Vehicle Population and Distribution 18
2.2.5 Review of Previous Studies for Fiji's Transport Sector 21
2.2.6 Vehicle Market in Fiji 28
Chapter 3 Literature Review 30
3.1 Factors that Influence the Development of Transport Sector 30
3.2 Different EV Technologies 34
3.3 Current and Future EV Market 37
3.3 Global EV Related Regulation and Policies 42
3.4 Evaluating EV Related Policies 52
3.5 Relating Fiji's EV Policies with Global Trends and Markets 57
Chapter 4 Methodology of Modelling 60
4.1 The GCAM Model 60
4.1.1 Energy System and Transport Sector in GCAM 64
4.1.2 Fiji's Energy Balance in GCAM-EML 68
4.1.3 Fiji's Passenger Land Transport Sector Structure in GCAM-EML 72
4.1.4 Augmenting the GCAM-EML Model 73
4.2 Constructing EV Policy Scenarios for Fiji 76
Chapter 5 Scenario Results and Discussions 84
5.1 Individual Scenario Results 84
5.1.1 Reference Scenario (RS) 84
5.1.2 Fuel Economy Shift (FES) 89
5.1.3 Tax Regulation Shift (TRS) 93
5.2 Scenario Comparison Assessment 97
Chapter 6 Policy Recommendation for Successful EV Integration in Fiji 104
6.1 EV Penetration Through Technology Shift and Infrastructure Readiness 104
6.2 Taxation Policies for Rapid EV Transition 108
6.3 EV Education and Consumer Promotion Programs 109
6.4 Transiting Towards Increased Public Transportation 110
Chapter 7 Conclusion, Limitations and Future Outlook 113
7.1 Conclusion 113
7.2 Limitations 115
7.3 Future Outlook 115
References 116

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