Modeling GCAM-Korea at Provincial-Level and its Applications
- 주제(키워드) GCAM , GCAM-Korea , Integrated Assessment Model , Energy System
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 김수덕
- 발행년도 2020
- 학위수여년월 2020. 8
- 학위명 박사
- 학과 및 전공 일반대학원 에너지시스템학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000030237
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
This study aims (i) to develop a provincial-level energy system model, GCAM-Korea, so that provincial heterogeneity can be captured, (ii) to show fruitfulness of GCAM-Korea, providing province-specific implications by scenario analysis. Integrated assessment modeling at a higher spatial scale is a prerequisite for deriving region-specific implications from the model. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is chosen for GCAM-Korea, a detailed integrated assessment model (IAM) of Korea’s socioeconomic and energy systems. GCAM-Korea is developed based on GCAM-USA. Data for 16 provinces have been collected from various sources. Some data have been pre-processed to fit within the specific structure of GCAM-USA data. Other types of data are newly added through new structures. The model results are validated to be compatible with historical trends. From reference case, it is found that provincial energy plans or policies could be compiled in detail using the proposed model, while maintaining consistency with national level modeling results. GCAM-Korea is open on the Github for reproducibility and transparency. Based on the reference case of GCAM-Korea, this study develops two opposite policies, a tax on coal-fired generation (Coal scenario) and a subsidy on PV generation (PV scenario), to explore how emissions reduction policy in electricity sector affects entire energy system at provincial level. Simulation results show that Coal scenario (PV scenario) increases (decreases) electricity price. According to different conditions in each end-use sector, however, each end-use sector shows different responses to electricity price change. Industry sector, especially steel and iron manufacture industry, shows the most susceptible response to the electricity price change through substitution of electricity with coal. Under Coal scenario (PV scenario), higher (lower) electricity price causes larger (smaller) coal consumption and smaller (larger) electricity consumption. From simulation results, some implications could be provided. First, South Korea’s iron and steel industry need to be moving toward the adoption of low carbon technologies. Second, a more detailed investigation on the impact of taxation on all industrial coal use would be a meaningful study in the future. Third, in energy and environmental aspects, cross-sectoral issues are potentially transformable into cross-provincial ones, since province-specific socioeconomic and energy features are fairly clear in South Korea.
more목차
I.Introduction 1
A.Background: Modeling GCAM-Korea 1
B.Background: Scenario Development 4
II.Literature Review 8
A.Region-specific GCAM models 8
B.Tax and Subsidy Policies 8
III.Methodology 11
A.Global Change Assessment Model 11
B.Overview of Region-specific GCAM models 16
IV.Modeling GCAM-Korea and Scenario Design 18
A.Reference Modeling and Data 21
1.Socioeconomics 21
2.Energy Balance 23
3.Electricity Transformation 26
4.End-use sectors 26
B.Scenario Design 28
V.Results 29
A.Reference Case 29
B.Scenario Cases 35
1.Electricity Sector 35
2.End-use Sectors 38
3.Industry Sector at Provincial-level 42
4.Provincial-level emissions reduction 45
VI.Conclusions 48
References 51
