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COMPARISON OF THE COST COMPETITIVENESS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES TO COAL-FIRED AND NATURAL GAS-FIRED PLANTS : A CASE STUDY OF ZIMBABWE’S ENERGY TRANSITION

초록/요약

Energy transitions have been a growing trend in recent years. Due to technological advances, growing global population, urbanization, and scarcity of resources, we are consuming more energy than before, and it is now imperative that we meet the growing energy demand in a sustainable manner. Like other Governments, Zimbabwe intends to take the sustainable route to meet its energy demand, however, the question remains whether Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs) are economically cost-competitive in comparison to the traditional fossil fuel-fired power plants. Moreover, will the benefits of Energy Transition outweigh the costs involved. With Zimbabwe as a case study, this study utilizes the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) approach to analyze whether it is cost-competitive for Zimbabwe to install RETs (Solar Photovoltaics (PV) and Wind) instead of repowering the existing small Coal-fired power plants or to install a new Natural gas-fired power plant. Using different scenarios, the study investigates which power generation technology would be the least cost option to meet the energy demand. The study utilized both the deterministic approach and the stochastic approach using Monte Carlo simulations for calculating LCOE values. The results showed that the Coal-fired power plant is the least cost option whether Zimbabwe continues in Business As Usual or whether carbon pricing is introduced nor when the WACC rate is decreased, and even when the overnight cost of RETs fall. However, results showed that RETs are only cost-competitive under certain conditions. Keywords: Zimbabwe, LCOE, Deterministic LCOE, Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), Energy Transition, Renewable Energy Technologies, Coal-fired power plant, Natural gas-fired power plant, Wind, solar PV.

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목차

Acknowledgment i
Abstract ii
Contents iii
List of Figures vi
List of Table vii
Abbreviations viii
CHAPTER 1 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Problem Statement 3
1.3 Aim of the Study 3
1.4 The objective of the Study 4
1.5 The Rationale of the Study 4
1.6 Background of Zimbabwe’s Energy Situation 4
1.6.1 Renewable Energy in Zimbabwe 6
1.7 Hypothesis 8
1.8 Methodology 8
1.9 Method of data collection 8
1.10 Chapter Outline 8
CHAPTER 2 11
2.1 Literature Review 11
2.1.1 Overview of LCOE approach 11
2.1.2 Review of alternative approaches 17
CHAPTER 3 20
3.1 Methodology 20
3.1.1 Research Strategy 20
3.1.2 The Agora Energiewende LCOE Calculator 21
3.1.3 Methodology Assumptions 24
3.1.4 Sample Selection and Power generation technology-economic parameters 25
3.1.5 Scenarios 27
3.1.6 LCOE -Monte Carlo simulations (LCOE-MCS) 29
3.1.7 Environmental Impacts: Carbon Emissions and Avoided Carbon Emissions 30
CHAPTER 4 32
4.1 Results 32
CHAPTER 5 43
5.1 Discussion 43
5.1.1 Analysis of Results 43
5.1.2 Electricity Tariffs in Zimbabwe 46
5.1.3 Carbon Dioxide Emissions 47
5.1.4 Externalities of Electricity Generation 47
5.1.5 Zimbabwe’s Energy Trilemma Index 50
5.1.6 Opportunities in Zimbabwe’s Energy Transition 50
CHAPTER 6 53
6.1 Limitations of the study 53
CHAPTER 7 55
7.1 Conclusion 55
7.1.1 Summary of Findings 55
References 58
Appendix I 63
Appendix II 66

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