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An Assessment of The Road Transportation Sector For Nigeria Utilizing (GCAM)

초록/요약

The initial aim of this study is to construct a data set for Nigeria's transportation sector to be used in the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model). This study attempted to update and improve the pre-existing data for the base year, but due to the some data gaps of consistent information the base year information was extrapolated from the pre-existing data to ensure consistency in areas of service demand, energy consumption, load factors. Some updated information on the load factor and energy consumption which was done with the relationship expressed by the service demand identity. Based on some re-worked data, this study conducted simulations in GCAM whose results were then compared to the results obtained from running the standard un-altered GCAM model. This study’s simulations do seem to yield reasonable results than those provided by the GCAM model in the service demand. Another aim of this study is to appraise the effectiveness of improved technology mass transport systems such as bus and trains. As vehicle technologies are gradually being replaced by more efficient less fuel consuming means.

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목차

Chapter I. Introduction 1
I.1. Previous Studies 2
I.2. Background and Motivation 3
Chapter II: Situation Analysis of Energy Supply Sector 5
II.1 Energy Resources 6
II.2. Indigenous Energy Resource 8
II.2.A Fossil Fuel 8
II.2.B Renewable Energy Sources 11
II.2.C Uranium 18
II.3 Oil and Power Transformation Sector 18
II.3.A Oil products 19
II.3.B Electricity Generation 21
II.4 Energy consumption 22
II.4.A Oil products 23
II.4.B Natural gas consumption: 23
II.5. Final Energy Consumption Sectors 25
II.5.A. Export and Import of various energy sources 26
II.5.B. Industrial sector 26
II.5.C. Residential sector 32
II.5.D Commercial and public services 37
II.5.E. Transportation sector 40
II.5.F Water transportation: 47
II.5.G Air transportation: 48
Chapter III. GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) 50
III.1 Brief Overview of GCAM 50
III.2. Transportation Model in GCAM 50
III.3. Decomposition of the Transportation Service Demand in GCAM 53
III.4. Transportation Structure in GCAM 55
Chapter IV. Modelling Nigerian Transportation Sector 59
IV.1. Data 59
IV.2. Transportation Service Demand in Road Sector 60
IV.4. Fuel Efficiency in Road sector 64
IV.5. Study Design 66
Chapter V: Simulation Results 68
V.2 Energy Consumption 70
V.3. CO2 Emissions 72
Chapter VI: Policies on Transportation 73
Chapter VII. Conclusion and Recommendation 75
References 77

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