Is Uganda's Economic Growth Export-Led or Import-Led?
- 주제(키워드) Economic Growth , Export-Led Growth , Import-Led Growth , Causality , Trade , Uganda
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 KimTae Bong
- 발행년도 2018
- 학위수여년월 2018. 2
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 국제대학원 국제통상학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000026159
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
Most of the previous studies on economic growth and trade openness have mainly singled out the effect of exports on economic growth, and ignored the potential role of imports on economic growth. Also in Uganda’s case, exports have been emphasized and promoted much more by government with the belief that it stimulates economic growth and helps in reducing the persistent trade deficit of the country. This paper re-examines the relationship between trade and economic growth in Uganda with the role of both exports and imports captured. To examine whether growth in trade stimulates economic growth or vice versa in Uganda, Granger causality tests and impulse response functions were used. The results indicate that both the export-led growth and import-led growth hypotheses do not hold for Uganda. However, the growth-led export hypothesis is valid, economic growth stimulates import growth and there is bidirectional causality between exports and imports exports and import for Uganda.
more목차
CHAPTER I 1
INTRODUCTION 1
1.1. Background 1
1.2. Problem statement 3
1.3. Objectives of the Study 4
1.4. Hypothesis 4
CHAPTER II 5
OVERVIEW OF UGANDA’S ECONOMY 5
2.1. Pre-independence (1894-1962) 5
2.2. Post-independence period (1962-1985) 6
2.3. Post-independence period (1986 to date) 7
2.4. Performance of Uganda’s export sector 9
2.5. Uganda’s Import sector performance 11
2.6. Economic growth performance 11
CHAPTER III 13
LITERATURE REVIEW 13
3.1. Theoretical Considerations 13
3.2. Empirical reviews 15
3.2.1. Exports and Economic growth 15
3.2.2. Exports, Imports and Growth 18
CHAPTER IV 21
METHODOLOGY 21
4.1. Data 21
4.2. Model and Analysis 21
4.3. Unit root test 22
4.4. Cointegration test 22
4.5. Vector Error Correction Model 23
4.6. Granger Causality test 24
CHAPTER V 25
EMPIRICAL RESULTS 25
5.1. Data 25
5.2. Unit root properties 25
5.3. Johansen Cointegration test 26
5.4. Estimation of VECM Model 27
5.5. VECM Granger Causality test 27
5.6. Impulse response function 29
5.6.1 Impulse response function of GDP to Exports and Imports 29
5.6.2 Impulse response function of Exports to GDP Growth and Imports 29
5.6.3 Impulse response function of Imports to Exports and GDP Growth 29
5.7. Variance decomposition 30
5.8. VECM Stability Condition test 31
CHAPTER VI 32
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 32
6.1. Conclusion 32
6.2. Recommendations 33
References 35
