DETERMINANTS OF TRADE BALANCE OF COTE D'IVOIRE
- 주제(키워드) Trade balance , FDI , Exchange rate , Domestic income , Cointegration , VECM
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 Felver Troy
- 발행년도 2018
- 학위수여년월 2018. 2
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 국제대학원 국제통상학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000026133
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
ABSTRACT I analyze in this study the long run and short run determinants of Cote d’Ivoire balance of trade using VECM over the period 1980 – 2012. The dependent variable, trade balance is used as the difference between the total exports value and imports value. As explanatory variables, real effective exchange rate, foreign direct investment inflow and domestic income. One lag is used to run the regression and the results show that both FDI and domestic income positively and significantly affect trade balance in the long run, but REER has a negative and significant effect on trade balance in the long run. The test of the Wald-test shows no short run impact between the variables. The findings also confirm that in the long term, Cote d’Ivoire trade balance would worsen if the REER appreciates, which is likely to compromise the country trade surplus. They also confirm that increasing FDI inflow would increase the trade balance, and an improvement of the gross domestic income would improve the trade balance in the long term.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS i
DEDICATION ii
ABSTRACT iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS iv
LIST OF TABLES vi
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS vii
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1
1.1. Statement of the problem 3
1.2. Objectives of the study 4
1.3. Significance of the study 4
1.4. Research Questions 4
1.5. Structure of the research 4
CHAPTER 2: REVIEW OF COTE D’IVOIRE PERFORMANCE 5
2.1. Economy 5
2.2. Foreign trade 6
2.3. Foreign investments 7
2.4. Exchange rate 8
CHAPTER 3: REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE AND HYPOTHESIS 9
3.1. Theoretical framework 9
3.1.1. Theory of international trade 9
3.2. Empirical framework 10
3.2.1. Trade balance 10
3.2.2. Exchange rate 10
3.2.3. Domestic income 12
3.2.4. Foreign direct investment 12
3.3. Hypothetical framework 14
3.3.1. Hypothesis 1: 14
3.3.2. Hypothesis 2: 15
3.3.3. Hypothesis 3: 15
CHAPTER 4: MODEL, METHODOLOGY AND DATA SOURCES 16
4.1. Model 16
4.2. Methodology 16
4.2.1. Run a Unit root test 17
4.2.2. Test for Cointegration 17
4.3. Data Sources 18
CHAPTER 5: SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 20
5.1. Descriptive statistics of variables 20
5.2. Correlation matrix 21
5.3. Lag order selection 22
5.4. Unit roots test 23
5.5. Johansen Cointegration test 24
5.6. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) test 25
5.7. Testing short run causality 26
5.8. Diagnostic check for model appropriateness 27
5.8.1. R-square and F-statistic check 27
5.8.2. Serial correlation check 27
5.8.3. Heteroskedasticity check: ARCH effect 27
5.8.4. Stability diagnostic check 27
CHAPTER 6: DISCUSSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 28
6.1. Discussions 28
6.2. Recommendations 31
CONCLUSION 33
• Limitations 33
REFERENCES 35
APPENDIX 38
