CAUSALITY BETWEEN TRADE AND GROWTH : THE CASE OF ETHIOPIA
- 주제(키워드) Ethiopia , Economic growth , Granger Causality , Vector Error Correction Model.
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 Kim Han Sung
- 발행년도 2018
- 학위수여년월 2018. 2
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 국제대학원 국제통상학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000026131
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
The relationship between trade and economic growth is debatable subject among development economists. The aim of this study is to reveal the causal relationship between export, import and economic growth (GDP) of Ethiopia by considering annual data from 1981-2015. A multi-variate model is specified and estimated by using vector error correction model to measure short run and long run relationship. Granger causality test is applied to test granger causality. The study revealed that, in the short run export and import has significant impact on GDP while in the long run only import significantly affects GDP. On the other hand at 5 percent significant level, the study found that, there is bi directional granger causality between export and GDP as well as Import and GDP
more목차
CHAPTER 1 1
INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Back ground 1
1.2 Problem of the statement 2
1.3 Objective of the study 3
1.4 Research questions 3
1.5 Significance of the study 3
1.6 Limitation of the study 3
1.7 Organization of the study 4
CHAPTER 2 5
LITERATURE RIVIEW 5
2.1 Theoretical Literature Review 5
2.1.1 Export-led growth hypothesis: 5
2.1.2 Import-led Growth Hypothesis 6
2.1.3 Growth-led Exports Hypothesis 6
2.1.4 Growth-led imports hypothesis 6
2.2 Empirical Literature Review 7
CHAPTER 3 10
ETHIOPIAN ECONOMY 10
3.1 Ethiopian Economy Overview 10
3.1.1 GDP, Export and Import 12
3.1.2 Import 13
3.1.3 Export 14
CHAPTER 4 16
DATA, METHODOLOGY AND MODEL SPECIFICATION 16
4.1 Data 16
4.2 Model specification 16
4.3 Econometric Method 17
4.3.1 Stationary and Non-stationary Series 17
4.3.2 Tests for Unit Roots 17
4.3.3 Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test 17
4.4 VECM 18
4.5 Granger causality 19
4.6 Diagnostic check 19
4.6.1 Normality test 19
4.6.2 Serial correlation test 20
4.6.3 Heteroskedacity Test 20
CHAPTER 5 21
RESULT AND DISCUSSION 21
5.1 Result of ADF test 21
5.2 Result of Johansen Cointegration test 22
5.3 Result of VECM 24
5.4 Result of Granger Causality test 26
5.5 Diagnostic test 28
5.5.1 Residual Vector Serial Correlation LM Test 28
5.5.2 Residual Vector Heteroskedasticity Test 28
5.5.3 Residual Vector Normality Test 28
CHAPTER 6 29
CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATION 29
6.1 Conclusions 29
6.2 Policy Implications 31
