EXPORT-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS : EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF GHANA
- 주제(키워드) Export-led growth , economic growth , causal relationship
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 Tae Bong Kim
- 발행년도 2018
- 학위수여년월 2018. 2
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 국제대학원 국제통상학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000026121
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
This study investigated the causal relationship between GDP and export growth in Ghana, using the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to co-integration for the period 1990-2016. The choice of period was influenced by data availability. Econometric evidence revealed stationarity of the variables at their first difference with the bounds test approach also confirming the existence of co-integrating relationship at the 5 percent level of significance. The long and short-run relationships also revealed that export has a positive relationship with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Ghana. These relationships were both found to be significant at the 1 percent significant level and 5 percent significant levels respectively. Also the Pairwise Granger Causality test revealed uni-directional causality between GDP and Export at the 10 percent level of Significance. Additionally, Labor and Imports were the only variables that were found to have a positive impact on GDP growth in both the long and short-run. However, capital and Term of Trade were both found to have a positive impact on GDP in the short-run but has a negative impact on GDP in the long –run. To sustain the impacts of exports on GDP growth, Ghana must endeavor to take pragmatic measures, policies, programmes and activities that will enhance an increased export. However considering the direction of causality, it is imperative for Ghana to grow the manufacturing and other sectors of the economy to serve as the catalyst for the export growth.
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INTRODUCTION 1
Background Information 1
1.1 Problem Statement 3
1.2 Aims and Objectives of the Study 4
1.3 Research Questions 4
1.4 Significance of the Study 4
1.5 Scope of Study 5
1.6 Organization of the Study 5
CHAPTER TWO 6
BRIEF ON GHANA’S EXPORT SUBSECTOR 6
2.1 Traditional and Non-traditional Exports 7
2.2 Ghana’s main exporting and importing countries 8
CHAPTER THREE 11
LITERATURE REVIEW 11
3.1 Theoretical Review 11
3.2 Empirical Review 13
3.3 Conclusion 16
CHAPTER FOUR 17
METHODOLOGY AND DATA 17
4.1 Introduction 17
4.2 Model Specification 17
4.3 A Priori Expected Signs 18
4.4 Justification and Measurement of Variables 19
4.5 Sources of data 20
4.6 Estimation procedure 21
4.6.1 Unit Root Tests 21
4.6.2 Cointegration Test 23
4.6.3 The Bounds Testing /ARDL Procedure 24
4.6.4 Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics 26
4.6.5 Granger Causality Test 27
4.7 Tools for Data Analysis 28
4.8 Conclusion 28
CHAPTER FIVE 29
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 29
5.1 Introduction 29
5.2 Descriptive Statistics 29
5.3 Unit Root Test 30
5.4 Bounds Test for Cointegration 32
5.5 Results of the Long Run Relationship 34
5.6 Results of the Short Run Dynamic Model 35
5.7 Model Diagnostics and Stability Tests 37
5.8 Granger Causality Tests 38
5.9 Conclusion 40
CHAPTER SIX 41
FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION 41
6.1 Introduction 41
6.2 Summary 41
6.3 Conclusions 43
6.4 Recommendations 43
6.5 Limitations of the Study 44
6.6 Direction for Future Research 44
REFERENCES 45
APPENDICES 49
