Examining the Causal Relationship between Economic Growth and Export Expansion : An Empirical Evidence from Palestine.
- 주제(키워드) Economic growth , Export expansion , Terms of trade , Vector Error Correction Model VECM.
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 Kim, Sung-Hwan
- 발행년도 2018
- 학위수여년월 2018. 2
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 국제대학원 국제통상학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000026118
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
This research paper aims at investigating and examining the long run and short run causal linkages between export and economic growth in Palestine by using annual time series data over the period 1994-2016. We employed Johansen-Juseluis maximum likelihood cointegration approach (1990) and tested the Granger Causality based on the multivariate framework of VECM technique. Empirical results revealed that the variables in question, Real GDP, Real export of goods and services, and Terms of trade are cointegrated, i.e. the variables share a common trend and interrelate together in the long run, and therefore, the output growth is positively affected by exports expansion and terms of trade variability in the long run. Furthermore, there is a unidirectional causal relationship flows from exports to economic growth in the long run at (5) percent significant level, while in the short run, export expansion doesn’t Granger-Cause output growth. As a result, policymakers in Palestine need to place considerable emphasis on adopting such economic policies alongside the National export strategy aim at broadening the exporter base through a greater regional economic integration, and hence, taking the advantage of innovational and technological diffusion (spillover effects) associated with such an integration so as to promote exportable sectors and capture the best practices of foreign firms.
more목차
CHAPTER I: (INTRODUCTION) 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Problem of Statement 4
1.3 Research Objectives 5
1.4 Research Questions 5
1.5 Research Contributions 6
1.6 Research Structure 7
CHAPTER II: (OVERVIEW OF PALESTINIAN ECONOMY) 8
2.1 Background 8
2.2 Overview of Macroeconomic Indicators 8
CHAPTER III:( LITERATURE REVIEW AND METHODOLOGY) 14
3.1 Review of Literatures 14
3.2 Methodology 18
3.2.1 Data sources 18
3.2.2 Model Specification 19
3.2.3 Empirical Estimation 20
3.2.3.1 Unit Root Test 20
3.2.3.2 Lag Order Selection Criteria 22
3.2.3.3 Cointegration Test 23
3.2.3.4 Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Estimation 24
CHAPTER IV: (EMPIRICAL RESULTS & DISCUSSIONS) 27
4.1 Testing for Unit Root 27
4.2 Lag Order Selection Criteria 28
4.3 Johansen’s Cointegartion Test 30
4.4 Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Estimation 32
4.5 Testing for Residual Diagnostic 35
CHAPTER V: (CONCLUSIONS & POLICY IMPLICATIONS) 37
5.1 Conclusions 37
5.2 Policy Implications 38
REFERENCES 40
