An Empirical Study On The Determinants Of Trade Balance In Myanmar
- 주제(키워드) International Trade , Policy
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 Hee Gab CHOI
- 발행년도 2018
- 학위수여년월 2018. 2
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 국제대학원 국제통상학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000026116
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
It is fruitful to examine the major determinants of the trade balance in Myanmar since Myanmar has persistent trade deficit which can result in the negative impacts on the economy. This study uses a dynamic model by combining three different theoretical approaches to the balance of payments, namely the elasticity, monetary and absorption approaches, to identify the important determinants of Myanmar’s trade balance. According to the elasticity approach, real exchange rate is comprised in the model to examine whether the Marshall-Lerner condition as well as J-curve effect exists in Myanmar. In addition, money supply and domestic income are contained in the model so as to analyze the monetary and absorption views to the balance of payments. In order to test the long term and short term effects of real exchange rate, domestic income and money supply on the trade balance, cointegrating regression: Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Vector Error Correction model (VECM) are employed in this study using annual time series data from 1986 to 2015. The empirical results reveal that real depreciation improves the trade balance in the long term, the Marshall-Lerner condition holds, but no J-curve effect is found in Myanmar. This study also shows the empirical evidences that money supply and domestic income play more significant role to solve the difficulties in the trade balance, rather than real exchange rate. In order to make effective measures to improve the trade balance, Myanmar needs to pay attention to monetary, income and exchange rate policies along with the acceleration of formulating and implementing the interrelated policies to develop Myanmar’s export sector by strengthening the linkage among relevant institutions.
more목차
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION............................................................................................. 1
1.1 General Background............. ............... ............................................................................ 1
1.2 Statement of the Problem. ................................................................................................. 6
1.3 Purpose of the Study …..................................................................................................... 8
1.4 Research Questions............................................................................................................ 9
1.5 Significant of the Study ……............................................................................................. 9
1.6 Limitation of the Study.................................................................................................... 10
1.7 Outline of the Study…..................................................................................................... 10
CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW, THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND RESEARCH HYPOTHESES …............................................................................................ 11
2.1 Literature Review............................ ............... ................................................................ 11
2.2 Theoretical Framework. ................................................................................................... 16
2.2.1 The Elasticity Approach ..................................................................................... 16
2.2.2 The Absorption Approach .................................................................................. 18
2.2.3 The Monetary Approach...................................................................................... 19
2.3 Research Hypotheses. ...................................................................................................... 20
CHAPTER III: OVERVIEW OF TRADE SECTOR IN MYANMAR, METHODOLOGY AND DATA DESCRIPTION ................................................................................................. 22
3.1 Overview of Trade Sector in Myanmar ............... .......................................................... 22
3.2 Methodology ................................................................................................................... 33
3.2.1 Unit root test ....................................................................................................... 34
3.2.2 Lag Order Selection ........................................................................................... 34
3.2.3 Cointegration tests .............................................................................................. 35
3.2.4 Cointegrating Regression: Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) ............. 36
3.2.5 Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) .......................................................... 36
3.3 Data sources and Variable descriptions .......................................................................... 37
3.3.1 Trade balance (TB) ............................................................................................ 37
3.3.2 Real exchange rate (RER) .................................................................................. 38
3.3.3 Domestic income (Dincome) ............................................................................. 38
3.3.4 Money supply (MS) ........................................................................................... 38
CHAPTER IV: EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ......................................... 39
4.1 Descriptive Statistics and Multicollinearity test.............................................................. 39
4.2 Testing for Unit root ........................................................................................................ 39
4.3 lag order selection criterion ............................................................................................ 40
4.4 Results of Cointegration tests ......................................................................................... 40
4.4.1 Engle-Granger Cointegration test …………………………………………….. 40
4.4.2 Johansen Cointegration test …………………………………………………… 41
4.5 Cointegrating Regression: Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) result…………..42
4.5.1 ADF test on the residual of the cointegrating regression: DOLS……………… 44
4.6 Result of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) …………………………………… 44
4.6.1 Johansen long run equation from VECM model ……………………………… 47
4.6.2 Residual diagnostic tests and Stability diagnostic tests for VECM model …………………………………………………………………………………. 48
CHAPTER V: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS......................................... 49
5.1 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 49
5.2 Recommendations............................................................................................................ 51
5.3 future research ................................................................................................................. 55
REFERENCES: ...................................................................................................................... 56
APPENDICES: ……………………........................................................................................ 61
