ANALYSIS OF THE DETERMINANTS OF THE TRADE BALANCE OF GHANA : AN EMPIRICAL STUDY
- 주제(키워드) Trade Balance , Ghana , Vector Error Correction , Long-run.
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 CHOI HEE GAB
- 발행년도 2018
- 학위수여년월 2018. 2
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 국제대학원 국제통상학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000026114
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
For a period of over fifty years, the Republic of Ghana has been faced with a constant negative trade balance. This persistent trade deficit has impeded economic development of the country. Though there have been researches aimed at unearthing the root causes of trade balance, findings have differed from country to country. Using an annual time series data spanning a period of twenty-seven years (1988 – 2015), this research employs a vector error correction model to examine the determining factors of Ghana’s trade balance. The explanatory variables for this study include real effective exchange rates and real domestic income. The variables were checked for stationarity, after which a Johansen cointegration test was conducted. Findings from our research indicate that real domestic income is positively significant and linked to Ghana’s trade balance. The findings furthermore reveal that depreciation of Ghana’s currency will manifest an improvement in its balance of trade in the long-run. The outcome of this study therefore suggests an exchange rate policy review for Ghana, and most importantly, strengthening of local industries to increase production in order to boost export capacity and become export competitive. This is important because the only way that Ghana would benefit from currency depreciation will be to increase productivity.
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CHAPTER ONE 1
INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Statement of Problem 3
1.3 Objective of the Study 4
1.4 Hypothesis of the Study 4
1.5 Significance of the Study 5
1.6 Scope of the Study 5
1.7 Organization of the Study 5
CHAPTER TWO 7
OVERVIEW OF TRADE AND EXCHANGE RATE IN GHANA 7
CHAPTER THREE 13
REVIEW OF LITERATURE AND METHODOLOGY 13
3.1 Literature Review 13
3.2 Hypotheses and Methodology 16
3.2.1 Hypotheses and Description of Variables 16
3.2.2 Methodology 17
CHAPTER FOUR 20
EMPIRICAL RESULT 20
4.1 Data 20
4.2 Unit Root Test 21
4.3 Lag Length Criteria 22
4.4 Johansen Cointegration Test 23
4.5 Long-Run Estimates 23
4.6 Vector Error Correction Model 24
4.6.1 Short-Run Estimates 24
4.7 Diagnostic Test of Residuals 25
CHAPTER FIVE 27
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 27
5.1 Conclusion 27
5.2 Recommendation 28
BIBLIOGRAPHY 30
APPENDIX 33
