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Tourism and It's Impact on Economy of Nepal: An Empirical Analysis

초록/요약

ABSTRACT Nowadays, the world economy earns huge income from travel and tourism industry. Since, the world has been converging towards service economy, the importance of the tourism industry to any country has been increasing significantly. Both developed and developing countries are receiving foreign exchange from tourism industry. For the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) whose trade competitiveness is relatively low, tourism plays a vital role, for it helps them to maintain the country’s Balance of Payments (BoPs) too. More than that through income and employment generation in respective economy and local communities it contributes to boost the higher economic growth and improve the standard of living of the people. Knowing the importance of the sector to the economy many researchers have come up with studies on this sector and concluded that tourism does have a positive impact on economic growth though the case was not always the same. Some studies could not show enough evidence to say tourism has significant effect on economic growth. In this research, the author has tested the Engle-Granger two step procedure in order to investigate the relationship between gross domestic product and foreign exchange earnings in the long run, adding worker remittances and export of goods and services as control variables. According to the result tourism has a significant impact on GDP of Nepal. Result also showed evidence that there is long run equilibrium relationship between the variables. Further, export also does have a significant impact. From two-step Engle Granger procedure positive Error correction term also has expected sign showing the validity of model. Based on the regression result, there is enough evidence to say that tourism earning has a significant impact on the GDP growth of Nepal. Key Words: Gross Domestic Product, Total Foreign Exchange Earning from Tourism, Tourism Income multiplier, Inbound and Outbound tourism etc.

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목차

CHAPTER I 1
INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Statement of the problem 3
1.3 Objective of the study 4
1.4 Research question 4
1.5 Significance of the study 5
1.7 Organization of the study 6
CHAPTER II 8
LITERATURE REVIEW 8
2.1 Theoretical Review 8
2.2 Conceptual understanding of tourism 9
2.2.1 Inbound tourism and Out bound tourism 9
2.2.3 Tourism as an export for an economy 10
2.2.4 Earning from tourism 10
2.2.5 Economic impact of Tourism in economy 11
2.3 Tourism policy in Nepal 11
2.4 Empirical review 12
CHAPTER III 16
DATA AND METHODOLOGY 16
3. 1 Overview of Nepalese economy 16
3.1.1 Annual and Per-capita GDP growth trend1960-2015 17
3.1.2 Sector-wise GDP growth composition in Nepal 2006-2015 18
3.1.3 Sector-wise contribution to GDP 19
3.2 Contribution of tourism in global economy 21
3.3 Tourism contribution to global and regional economy and position of Nepal. 22
3.3.2 Tourism growth contribution in long-term and Nepal’s position 24
3.4 Tourism in South Asia 26
3.4.1 Number of tourist arrival in 2012 26
3.4.2 Average tourism receipts during 2008-2014 27
3.4.3 Average tourism receipts percentage of total export 28
3.5 Travel and tourism contribution in Nepalese Economy 30
3.5.1 Contribution of tourism to GDP and employment in Nepal 30
3.5.2 Number of international tourist arrival in Nepal 2005-2014 32
3.5.3 Average length of stay 1974-2014 33
3.5.4 International tourist arrival and departures 34
3.5.5 International tourism receipts international tourism expenditure 35
3.5.6 International tourism receipts as percentages of total exports and expenditure as percentage of import 36
3.5.7 Purpose of tourist arrival in Nepal 38
3. 6 International trade situation of Nepal 39
3.7 Data and Methodology 40
3.8 Model Specification 42
CHAPTER IV EMPIRICAL RESULT AND DISCUSSION 44
4.1 Unit root and OLS result 44
4.2 Lag selection criteria 46
4.3 Regression Result and Discussion 47
CHAPTER V RECOMENDATION AND CONCLUSION 49
5.1 Recommendation 49
5.2 Conclusion 50
APPENIX 1 55

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