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A Modeling and the Analysis of Petroleum Products in Korean Energy System Using Integrated Assessment Model

초록/요약

Korea has experienced strong GDP growth for the past few decades, especially from the 1960s to 1990s. As the 14th largest economy in the world, Korea is among the top ten energy consumers in the world. Lacking sufficient energy resources, Korea depends heavily on imports, which raises energy security issues. Korea also needs to reduce its greenhouse gas emission, as pledged at the 2015 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of Parties (COP). Petroleum products take the largest share in Korean final energy consumption, followed by electricity and coal. Domestic petroleum products consumption mostly comes from the industry and transportation sectors. Although it has one of the largest refinery facilities in the world, Korea imports nearly all of its oil needs. The aim of this study is to model and analyze petroleum products in Korea, from their production through refineries to consumption in end-use sectors. Petroleum products modeling is mainly focused on the industry and transportation sectors, for these sectors consume the largest share of petroleum products. A simple model of export is developed, too. One of the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), is chosen as the main analysis tool. GCAM integrates socioeconomics, energy, agriculture, land use, and climate system, and has been widely used for policy analysis. Currently, though, GCAM does not model petroleum products in detail. To augment the current model, seven fuels are modeled: gasoline, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, bunker fuel, naphtha, jet fuel, other liquids, and biodiesel. Before starting the disaggregation process, the current system of GCAM as an integrated assessment model is investigated and reviewed. Then, the current ‘refined liquids’ in GCAM is disaggregated based on the International Energy Agency (IEA) Energy Balance. Since petroleum products are consumed in all end-use sectors, as well as in power generation, the whole energy system is modified. Characteristics of petroleum products consumption by each energy sector are extracted from the Korean Energy Consumption Survey. The share of petroleum products in the power sector is very small, which is only around 3%. In industry, most of petroleum products consumption is as feedstocks. Due to the importance of the industry sector, its current GCAM representation is disaggregated. There are 37 sub-industries modeled. These sub-industries are then re-aggregated into 11 industries for reporting purposes. Among sub-industries, petrochemical industries consume most of the energy (mainly as industrial feedstocks) followed by non-metallic, iron and steel, and non-ferrous sub-industries. The disaggregation of petroleum products provides more insight into the interaction of energy and technologies in GCAM energy system. For example, in road transportation, it is observable that electric car of Small Truck and SUV class could replace the LPG and diesel-fueled cars by the end of the century, which is not possible using the original GCAM. Price structure scenario is applied using information from the highly taxed Korean energy system. This results in reduced petroleum products consumption, especially in transportation. The penetration of electric and gas cars is expected to be accelerated, too, to some extent under this market condition. Following up the above example, electric cars of the Small Truck and SUV class are expected to topple the LPG and diesel-fueled cars by 2085, 15 years faster than original simulation result. Carbon policy is exercised in the form of both carbon tax and carbon cap. Carbon tax is set with a range of $5-50 (1990 $/tC) during 2015-2100 period. In 2030, the emission is reduced by 10.34 MTC or 5.7% of reference scenario. Meanwhile the carbon cap is aimed at reaching 30% reduction of CO2 emission in 2030. It is found that a carbon tax of $105.24 (1990 $/tC) in 2030 is required to achieve such a target. Future research includes combining detailed transportation modeling (adding taxi, local and intercity transportation) and petroleum products disaggregation; global modeling of petroleum products and export-import modeling; and providing linkage between refinery and petrochemical industries with GDP.

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목차

Chapter I. Introduction 1
1.1. Background 1
1.2. Research Objectives 2
1.3. Research Approach 3
1.4. Outline of the Study 5
Chapter II. Petroleum Products in Korean Energy System 8
2.1. Korean Economy and Energy System 8
2.2. Role of Petroleum Products in Korea 11
2.3. Carbon Emission 13
Chapter III. Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) 15
3.1. Introduction to Integrated Assessment Model 15
3.2. Introduction to GCAM 16
3.3. General System of GCAM 18
3.3.1. Technology Competition and Equilibrium Process 18
3.3.2. Socioeconomics 21
3.3.3. Agriculture and Land Use 23
3.4. Energy System 24
3.4.1. Resource and Supply Curve 24
3.4.2. Building 26
3.4.3. Industry 30
3.4.4. Transportation 32
Chapter IV. Modeling Petroleum Products in GCAM 33
4.1. Processing IEA Energy Balance into GCAM Energy Balance 33
4.2. Disaggregation (Remapping) of Petroleum Products 39
4.3. Petroleum Products Update in GCAM 42
4.4. Export of Petroleum Products 49
Chapter V. Analysis of Petroleum Products Consumption in Energy Sectors 53
5.1. Petroleum Products Industry and Power Generation 53
5.2. Modeling of Korean Industry in GCAM 55
5.2.1. Korean Energy Consumption Survey 56
5.2.2. Industry Disaggregation in GCAM 61
5.3. Petroleum Products in Building 69
5.4. Petroleum Products in Transportation 71
Chapter VI. Development and Analysis of Price and Carbon Policy Scenarios 78
6.1. Reference Case 78
6.1.1. Socioeconomics 78
6.1.2. Energy Demand 79
6.1.3. Price Scenario 81
6.1.4. Carbon Emission 86
6.2. Scenario Development 89
6.2.1. Energy Tax 89
6.2.2. Carbon Policy 90
6.3. Results and Discussions 91
6.3.1. Energy Tax 91
6.3.2. Carbon Policy 92
Chapter VII. Conclusions 98
References 101
List of Main Abbreviations 104
Appendix I Mapping of IEA Energy Balance 105
Appendix II R Code Snippet to Update Petroleum Products Calibrated Value 109

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