The Importance of Sovereign Debt Level in Forming ASEAN+3 Single-Currency: : Lesson from European Union Crisis 2010
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 Prof. Hee-Gab, Choi
- 발행년도 2011
- 제출일 2011-6-24
- 학위수여년월 2011. 8
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 국제대학원 국제통상학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000011745
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
Abstract European sovereign debt crisis at 2010 has opened our eyes about the importance of fiscal austerity in forming the currency union. Fiscal austerity is manifested quantitatively in the form of level of budget deficit and level of sovereign debt. The problem faces by Greece during the European crisis 2010 shows the sovereign debt crisis may threaten the country membership in Euro zone. This paper examines the importance of the similarity of sovereign debt level in forming the currency union by adding the similarity of sovereign debt level as one of the optimum currency area (OCA) properties and the application of it on the ASEAN+3 countries single-currency. In the other word, this paper considers the similarity of sovereign debt level in calculating the OCA index for the case of ASEAN+3 countries in the period of 1980 - 2009. The result showed that similarity of sovereign debt level is statistically significant for the case of ASEAN+3 countries in forming single-currency. And by considering similarity of sovereign debt level, the currency union should started from Thailand, Malaysia, Philippine, China and South Korea to form single-currency together for the first group and later followed by Indonesia, Singapore and Japan for the second group. Keywords: ASEAN+3, economic integration, optimum currency area, single currency, sovereign debt. JEL Classification Codes: E32, F02, F15, F31.
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Table of Contents
Abstract ii
Acknowledgments iii
Dedications iv
Abbreviations and Acronyms v
Table of Contents vi
List of Graphs viii
List of Tables ix
CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 1
1.1. Introduction 1
1.2. Objective 2
1.3. Methodology 3
1.4. Organization of the Thesis 3
CHAPTER II THEORY AND ECONOMIC BACKGROUND 4
2.1. Optimum Currency Area (OCA) Index and Sovereign Debt 4
a. OCA Index 4
b. Maastricht Treaty Convergence Criteria 4
c. Sovereign Debt and Its Risk to The Currency Union 7
2.2. ASEAN+3 Countries and The Financial Agreement 9
2.3. Review of European Sovereign Debt Crisis 10
2.4. Sovereign Debt in ASEAN+3 Countries 14
2.5. Literature Review 15
CHAPTER III METHODOLOGY AND RESEARCH RESULT 18
3.1. Hypothesis 18
3.2. Econometric Model and Data 18
3.3. Result and Analysis 21
a. Regression Result 21
1). Unit Root Test 21
2). Fixed Effects or Random Effects: Hausman Test 22
3). The Classical Assumption Test 23
4). Intepretation of Regression Result 24
b. OCA Index 30
CHAPTER IV 37
CONCLUSIONS 37
4.1. Conclusion and Policy Implications 37
4.2. Limitations of the Study and Recommendation for the Next Research 38
REFFERENCES 39
APPENDIX 41
