Analysis of effect of East African Community (EAC) on the Tanzania's trade flows
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 발행년도 2011
- 제출일 2011-06-24
- 학위수여년월 2011. 8
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 국제대학원 국제통상학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000011744
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
This thesis examines the effects of the re-establishment of East African Community (EAC) as a regional trade agreement (RTA) on Tanzania？s trade flows. The formation of the EAC raises an important question whether this regionally based trading agreement brings economic merit to its members or not. The estimation technique of testing for the effect of regional integration on bilateral trade is based on the augmented gravity model with country specific dummies and regional integration dummies among others. Using data on bilateral trade between Tanzania and her 30 trading partners over the period 1997？2009, this thesis reports three important results. Firstly, contrary to results from the traditional approach, estimates from panel data models indicate that both the EAC and the SADC have had low moderation in trade creation effects on Tanzania？s bilateral trade. Secondly, Tanzania？s trading partnersare somewhat opened to Tanzania？s trade. Lastly, whereas it is difficult for Tanzania？s trading goods to penetrate foreign markets, foreign goods easily penetrate into Tanzania？s market. In fact, Tanzanian intra-bloc trade is performing under average which leads to trade diverting tendency. Since static gains from the RTAs are quite low, possibly, dynamic gains from regional integration lend more support to the economic merit of the RTAs.Therefore, the policy implication from this empirical study is that Tanzania should continue with its efforts to strengthen her regional trading, and to gain more exports market to both traditional and non-traditional trading partners, if the export-ledeconomic growth strategy is to become a reality in Tanzania.
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TABLE OF CONTENT
Abstract iv
Acknowledgment .v
Dedication vi
Abbreviations and Acronyms viii
Table of contents .ix
List of figures xi
List of tables xii
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCRION 1
1. Overview of the regional economy 1
1. An overview of EAC and SADC Regional Trading Arrangement 1
2. Motivation of Forming Regional Integration and Challenges 3
3. Tanzania？s Trade with EAC Partner States, 1997 - 2008 8
4. Tanzania？s Trade with SADC Countries 8
5. Objective of the study 10
6. Statement of the problem (Hypothesis formulation) 11
7. Relevance of the study 12
8. Organization of the study 13
CHAPTER 2: OVERVIEW OF TANZANIAN ECONOMY 14
2. An overview of Tanzanianeconomy 14
2.1Tanzania？s Macro Economic Indicators Performance, 1980- 2009 16
2.2Tanzania Sector Specific Performance 19
2.3Tanzaniantrade policy (focus on exports and imports) 24
2.4 Export Performance and Characteristics 26
2.5Import performance and characteristics 29
CHAPTER 3: LITERATURE REVIEW 32
3. A Review about Tanzania？s Foreign Trade with Gravity Model Focus 32
CHAPTER 4: EMPIRICAL STUDY 37
4.1 Theoretical model (Derivation of the equation) 37
4.2 Data Description 40
4.3 Regression Results 41
4.5 Discussion of Regression Results and Empirical Test Analysis 43
CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION 48
5.1 Conclusion and Policy Implications48
References 51
Appendices 54
