Analysis ofKenya trade flow with its main trading partners: A gravity model approach
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 Hongjae Lee
- 발행년도 2010
- 제출일 2010-04-21
- 학위수여년월 2010. 4
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 국제대학원 국제경영학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000010834
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
In the past decades, Kenya experienced growth in its exports. This paper explores the major factors affecting Kenya’s exports. This paper attempts to examine Kenya trade with its 17 main trading partners using an econometric gravity model between 2000 and 2008. In the model, the bilateral trade is a linear function of GDP, Geographical distance, inflation, openness, and the dummy variables RTA and LIC. The empirical results show that the explanatory variables, GDP (importing and exporting country), openness and level of industrialization have positive significant effect on Kenya’s export trade. Population (exporting country) has negative effects as expected. Three other explanatory variables, population (importing countries), distance and RTA membership do not significantly affect Kenya’s exports. The implications of the results are many, first trade must be liberalized to enhance Kenya’s trade. Bilateral trade in Africa is affected by poor infrastructure network. Hence improvement in infrastructure may be a necessary step for successful trade flows in Africa. The flow of trade in the regional bloc is constrained by problems of overlapping membership, policy harmonization and problems with compensation issues, among others.
more목차
Approval------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Abstract-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1
Acknowledgment--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------2
Table of contents--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------3
List of figures------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------4
List of tables--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------5
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 Introduction ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------6
1.1. Background Information-------------------------------------------------------------------------------6
1.1.1 An overview of the Kenyan economy-----------------------------------------------------------6
1.1.2. The Kenyan exports and export markets----------------------------------------------------------8
1.1.3 An overview of EAC and COMESA---------------------------------------------------------------9
1.1.4Economics of regional integration and challenges-----------------------------------------------11
1.2 Statement of the problem----------------------------------------------------------------------------13
1.3 Objectives of the study------------------------------------------------------------------------------13
1.4 Relevance of the study-------------------------------------------------------------------------------14
1.5 Organisation of the study----------------------------------------------------------------------------14
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.0 Introduction
2.1 Theoretical literature-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------15
2.2 Empirical literature-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------17
2.3 Synthesis of literature----------------------------------------------------------------------------------18
CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------19
3.2 Theoretical model--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------19
3.3 Empirical model----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------21
3.4 Estimation procedure ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------23
3.5 Data and data sources----------------------------------------------------------------------------------24
3.6Regression results---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------25
3.7Estimation results---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------27
CHAPTER 4 CONCLUSION
4.1 Conclusion and policy recommendations-----------------------------------------------------------30
4.2 Scopes for further research----------------------------------------------------------------------------31
References list----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------32
Appendices--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------34
