Evaluation of The Potential Trade Between South Korea And Paraguay "An Economic Partial Equilibrium Approach"
Evaluation of The Potential Trade Between South Korea And Paraguay "An Economic Partial Equilibrium Approach"
- 주제(키워드) International Trade
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 최희갑
- 발행년도 2008
- 학위수여년월 2008.12
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 및 전공 국제대학원 국제통상학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000009896
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
ABSTRACT As a consequence of the movement toward the expansion of the world economic integration frame; MERCOSUR, Paraguay as a member country and South Korea developed their relationship especially in trade and investment. In this sense, according to figures regarding potential trade, Paraguay can increase its currents exports to South Korea almost 285 times. On the other hand, South Korea can improve its actual exports to Paraguay approximately 21 times. Also was determined that for Paraguay would be beneficial an FTA between MERCOSUR and South Korea, considering the predominance of trade creation over trade diversion and therefore the existence of a positive net trade creation between both sides.
more목차
LIST OF CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES 3
LIST OF TABLES 3
LIST OF FIGURES IN STATISTICAL ANNEX 4
LIST OF TABLES IN STATISTICAL ANNEX 4
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 5
CONTRACTIONS 6
1. INTRODUCTION 7
2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 9
2.1- Formal description of the Viner Model 13
2.2- Mathematical explanation of the Viner Model 17
2.2.1- Trade Diversion 17
2.2.2- Trade Creation 21
2.2.3- Customs Unions (CU) 22
3. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AND TRADE POLICY 24
3.1- Republic of Korea 24
3.1.1- Macroeconomic Overview 24
3.1.2- Trade Policy and Development 25
3.2- MERCOSUR (South Common Market) 30
3.2.1- Macroeconomic Overview 30
3.2.2 Trade Policy and Development 34
4- OVERALL TRADE OF PARAGUAY AND ITS PROSPECTS 42
4.1 Trade Performance and Main Products Traded 42
4.1.1- Trade Openness Index (TOI) 49
4.2- Intra ？Extra MERCOSUR Trade and Main Commercial Partners 53
4.2.1- Regional Export Quota (REQ) 66
4.2.2- Import Penetration Coefficient (IPC) 68
4.3- Bilateral Trade Relations between Paraguay and South Korea 68
4.3.1- Revealed Comparative Index (RCA) 73
4.3.2- Grubel Lloyd Index (GLI) 75
4.3.3- Entropy Index (EI) 77
4.3.4- Trade Potential between Paraguay and South Korea 80
5- EFFECTS ON THE PARAGUAYAN IMPORTS. OBSERVATION OF TRADE CREATION AND DIVERSION CONSIDERING TARIFF SCHEME LIBERALIZATION BETWEEN SOUTH KOREA AND PARAGUAY 84
5.1- Model Specification 85
5.2- Trade Creation (TC), Trade Diversion (TD) and Net Trade Creation (NTC) 89
5.2.1- Trade Creation (TC) 90
5.2.2- Trade Diversion (TD) and Net Trade Creation (NTC) 90
5.3- Estimations Results 91
6- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION 94
7- BILBIOGRAPHY 97
STATISTICAL ANNEX 99
목차
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure N？ 1. Trade Diversion of Paraguay 20
Figure N？ 2. Trade Creation of Paraguay 22
Figure N？ 3. South Korea. Economic Growth. (1990-2007) 25
Figure N？ 4. South Korea. Overall Trade Performance. (1997-2007) 29
Figure N？ 5. South Korea. Overall Major Commodities Traded. (1997-2007) 29
Figure N？ 6. MERCOSUR. Overall Trade. (1991-2006) 36
Figure N？ 7. Intra Regional. Export Index. (1995-2006) 38
Figure N？ 8. MERCOSUR. Main Trade Partners. 2007 39
Figure N？ 9. PARAGUAY. Top Products Traded. 2007 45
Figure N？ 10. PARAGUAY. Overall Trade Performance. 1991-2007 46
Figure N？ 11. Crude Oil Price. August 2001- August 2008 49
Figure N？ 12. Paraguay GDP Growth vs TOI. 1990-2007 53
Figure N？ 13. Paraguay. Intra and Extra MERCOSUR Imports and Exports. 1991-2007 64
Figure N？ 14. Paraguay. Top Five Major Trade Partners. 2007 65
Figure N？ 15. Trade Performance Paraguay vs South Korea. 2000-2007 73
Figure N？ 16. Entropy Index for Exports and Imports. 1999-2007 79
목차
LIST OF TABLES
Table N？ 1. Paraguay. Top Major Exported Goods to Brazil. 2007 56
Table N？ 2. Paraguay. Top Major Exported Goods to Argentina. 2007 57
Table N？ 3. Paraguay. Top Major Exported Goods to Uruguay. 2007 59
Table N？ 4. Paraguay. Top Major Imported Goods from Brazil. 2007 60
Table N？ 5. Paraguay. Top Major Imported Goods from Argentina. 2007 61
Table N？ 6. Paraguay. Top Major Imported Goods from Uruguay. 2007 62
Table N？ 7. Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (RCA). 2007 75
Table N？ 8. Main Products With Major Net Trade Creation. 93
목차
LIST OF FIGURES IN STATISTICAL ANNEX
Figure N？ 1. South Korea. Major Trade Partners. 1997-2007 100
Figure N？ 2. MERCOSUR .Trade Openness Index (TOI). 1991-2006 101
Figure N？ 3. MERCOSUR. Extra Regional Trade. 1991-2006. 102
Figure N？ 4. Intra and Extra MERCOSUR Total Trade Shares. 1991-2006 103
Figure N？ 5. Intra and Extra MERCOSUR. Import and Export Shares 1991-2007 104
Figure N？ 6. Paraguay. Regional Export Quota (REQ). 1991-2007 105
Figure N？ 7. Main Products Traded. Paraguay Vs. South Korea. 2007 107
목차
LIST OF TABLES IN STATISTICAL ANNEX
Table N？ 1. Eviews Output. Paraguay GDP growth vs TOI. 1991-2007 106
Table N？ 2. Indicative Trade Potential. Paraguay to South Korea. 2005-2007 108
Table N？3. Indicative Trade Potential. South Korea to Paraguay. 2005-2007 109
Table N？ 4. Econometric Estimation Output. 1970-2006 110
