The Economic Impact of ASEAN on Indonesia Trade with Other ASEAN Countries
The Economic Impact of ASEAN on Indonesia Trade with Other ASEAN Countries
- 주제(키워드) ASEAN Economics
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 현진권
- 발행년도 2008
- 학위수여년월 2008.12
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 및 전공 국제대학원 국제통상학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000009891
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
ABSTRACT The impact of the establishment of regional trading bloc (RTB) arrangement in member countries economy may come before that arrangement come into force, and known as the anticipatory effect of the establishment of RTB. This thesis tried to find out the anticipatory effect of the establishment of ASEAN Economic Community in Indonesia economy. Since ASEAN made a significant progress in economic cooperation and moving forward to the regional economic integration, it is hypothesized that the establishment of ASEAN Economic Community has an anticipatory effect on the Indonesia economy, and will be reflected on the Indonesian trade pattern toward other ASEAN countries. Using Gravity Model and data of Trade, GDP, Population, Distance and AEC (ASEAN Economic Community) dummy variable in 8 years observation (2000 ？ 2007), it is revealed detectable effect stemming from the announcement of the establishment of ASEAN Economic Community in Indonesia Economy. The result of research finding can not be generalized to all ASEAN countries since it is only using the Indonesia economy as an object of study.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
-Acknowledgment i
-Abstract ii
-Contents iii
-List of figures and table v
I. Introduction 1
1.1. Background 1
1.2. Objective of Thesis 2
1.3. Structure of Thesis 3
II. Literature Review on Regional Trading Bloc 4
2.1. Theory of Regionalism 4
2.2. Theory of Regional Trading Bloc 5
2.3. The Effect of Regional Trading Bloc
on Member Countries Welfare 10
2.4. Introduction to Major regional Trading Blocs 12
2.4.1. The European Union (EU) 13
2.4.2. The North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) 14
2.4.3. Mercado Comun del Sur (MERCOSUR) 16
2.4.4. Association of South East Asia Nations 17
III. Economic Cooperation in ASEAN 19
3.1. Association of South East Asia
Nations (ASEAN): An Introduction 19
3.1.1. ASEAN？ Objective and Principles 20
3.1.2. ASEAN Organizational Structure 21
3.2. The Development of Economic Cooperation in ASEAN 22
3.2.1. ASEAN Economic Cooperation ？ Industry Sectors 23
3.2.2. ASEAN Economic Cooperation ？ Trade Sectors 24
3.2.3. ASEAN Economic Cooperation ？ Services Sectors 24
3.2.4. ASEAN Economic Cooperation ？ Investment sectors 25
3.3. The Establishment of ASEAN Economic Community 25
IV. Analysis 28
4.1. Research Methodology 31
4.1.1. Problem Definition 31
4.1.2. Problem Limitation 32
4.1.3. Hypothesis 33
4.1.4. Research Model 33
4.1.5. Expected Sign of Coefficient 35
4.1.6. Data 36
4.2. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Trend of Indonesia？ Trade 37
V. Conclusion and Policy Implication 44
-References 47
-Appendix 49
-Appendix 1. Data of each variable used in the model 49
-Appendix 2. OLS result 53
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LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLE
List of Figures
- Figure 1. Stage of Regional Trading Bloc 9
- Figure 2. The most active regional trading bloc 12
- Figure 3. ASEAN recent economic indicators 28
- Figure 4. Share of Indonesia Trade with ASEAN countries 39
- Figure 5. Share of Indonesia Trade with non-ASEAN countries 39
List of Table
Table 1. Coefficients and statistic test of the model 37
