The Dutch Disease and Sustainable Economic Growth : The Case of Kazakhstan
- 주제(키워드) Dutch Disease
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 발행년도 2006
- 학위수여년월 2006. 2
- 학위명 석사
- 본문언어 한국어
초록/요약
The problem of Dutch Disease became rather topical in Kazakhstan possessing extensive natural resources, particularly oil. The economy is said to be overheated displaying typical symptoms of Dutch Disease, such as high inflation and real exchange rate, and more generally, growing dependence on petroleum exports given future output expansion plans. The issue raised in this paper is to define whether Kazakhstan is affected by the notorious resource curse, and if so, what measures can be taken to offset its impact on the economy, considering the international experience of some developing countries which have been following similar path of oil-led economic growth.
more목차
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Background of the Study 1
1.2 Statement of the Problem 2
1.3 Aims and Objectives of the Research 2
1.4 The Significance of Study 2
1.5 Methodology of the Research 3
1.6 Layout 3
2. The Dutch Disease: the Overview of Theoretical and Practical Literature 4
2.1 Reasons of the Underperformance of Resource-Rich Countries 4
2.2 The Origin of the Dutch Disease 9
2.3 Classic Theory 10
2.4 Joint Empirical Test 11
2.5 Growing Debate 13
3. The Evidence of the Dutch Disease in Developing Countries 16
3.1 The Case of Venezuela: Failure 18
3.2 The Case of Saudi Arabia: Stagnation 24
3.3 The Case of Norway: Success 29
4. How Might Resource Curse be Avoided ？ the Theory and Practice 35
4.1 Laissez-faire Policy 35
4.2 Diversification 37
4.3 Revenue Sterilization 38
4.4 Stabilization and Oil Funds 40
4.5 Investment Policy 43
4.6 Political Reforms 44
5. Kazakhstan: The Challenge of Managing Kazakhstan？s Oil Boom 47
5.1 Oil Production 48
5.2 Recent Economic Development and Dutch Disease 49
5.2 1 Real GDP and Inflation 49
5.2.2 Fiscal Policy 51
5.2.3 Monetary Policy 52
5.2.4 Manufacturing sector 54
5.2.5 FDI 55
5.2.6 Exports 56
5.2.7 Government Institutions 56
5.3 Strategic Planning of the Government 58
5.3.1 Innovative Industrial Development Strategy of Kazakhstan 58
5.3.2 Pilot Cluster Project 59
5.4 Policy Recommendations 60
5.4.1 Fiscal Policy 61
5.4.2 Diversification and Public Sector 61
5.4.3 Agriculture 62
5.4.4 Free Trade and WTO Accession in 2006 62
5.4.5 FDI into Research and Development 63
5.4.6 Corruption and Transparency 63
5.4.7 Education 64
5.4.8 Avoiding Resource Curse 65
6. Conclusion 67
References 70
