STRATEGIC PATHWAY TO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL PRESERVATION IN BURUNDI USING INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL
- 주제(키워드) BURUNDI , Electrification rate , Sustainable development , Renewable energy development , financial support
- 주제(DDC) 333.79
- 발행기관 아주대학교 국제대학원
- 지도교수 Jaeick Oh
- 발행년도 2023
- 학위수여년월 2024. 2
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 국제대학원 융합에너지학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000033256
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
The sustainable development of Burundi is limited by challenges relative to low electricity access, energy security and climate change. The country is expected to have a constant and rapidly increasing demand due a number of variables, including a high rate of population increase, a rapidly development of building, industry sectors, and the exploitation of undiscovered mineral resources. Burundi needs to prepare carefully a pathway in order to support its energy sector in the future. Burundi energy mix is characterized by its inadequate access to electricity and heavy reliance on traditional biomass use. The consumption of traditional biomass for cooking, heating and lighting makes Burundi a country with significant rate of deforestation. While the potential for solar energy, the average wind and the hydroelectric capacity recorded high and based on the country's potential, it is important to determine how renewable energy development may help Burundi develop sustainably by utilizing the natural resources that are available without compromising the environment. This research aims to assess the development of a power generation plan that will highlight Burundi's various renewable energy options in the "power generation system," opening the door for significant private sector involvement that is essential for addressing the significant challenges which the country's power sector is currently facing. It uses one of the Integrated Assessment Models, Global Change Analysis Model Energy Modeling Laboratory (GCAM- EML) to evaluate future of Burundi energy mix, evaluate the governmental implication of financial support in the development of renewables in order increase the access to electricity, meet the National Determined contributions target and preserve the environment. Applying the policy of developing hydropower energy at 60% in the energy mix reduces significantly the emissions; and taking in consideration the climate effects, the level of water in the reservoir decreases and that leads to hydropower generation declining. The solar development supported by the financial assistance compensates the gap in hydropower generation due to the climate change, increases the total generation by 16%, makes the cost of solar energy cheaper and affordable to people with low income, and lowers the emissions. By switching from the use of traditional biomass to electricity, this increase in overall electricity output contributes to the supply of electricity in building and industrial sectors; expands access to electricity and slows down the rate of deforestation. Key words: BURUNDI, Electrification rate, Sustainable development, Renewable energy development, financial support
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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Statement of the problem 3
1.2 Research questions 6
1.3 Purpose 6
CHAPTER 2 BACKGROUND OF ENERGY SYSTEM AND ELECTRICITY SECTOR IN BURUNDI 8
2.1 Country context 8
2.2 Economy and social evolution 10
2.3 Energy situation 13
2.3.1 Introduction 13
2.3.2 Primary energy consumption 15
2.3.3 Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking 19
2.3.4 Access to electricity 20
2.3.5 Energy sources 28
2.3.6 Electricity transmission and distribution 36
2.3.7 Energy policies in Burundi 38
CHAPTER 3 LITERATURE REVIEW 39
3.1 Energy, sustainable development and environment 39
3.1.1 Introduction 39
3.1.2 Relation between energy, sustainable development and environment 39
3.2 Fossil resources and energy transition 42
3.3 Renewable energy potentialities in Burundi 45
3.3.1 Hydropower energy 46
3.3.2 Solar energy 48
3.3.3 Wind energy 51
3.3.4 Geothermal 53
3.3.5 Biomass 54
3.4 Brief SWOT analysis of Burundi electricity sector 55
3.5 Climate Change Effects 56
CHAPTER 4 MODEL, DATA AND SCENARIOS 59
4.1 Model 59
4.2 Electricity sector in GCAM 63
4.3 Global Change Assessment Model-Energy Modelling Laboratory 66
4.4 Data 67
4.5 Scenarios 69
CHAPTER 5 RESULTS, ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSIONS FROM MODELING 81
5.1 Electricity generation 81
5.2 Electricity price 88
5.3 Environmental preservation 94
5.4 Emissions reduction 99
CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTED ACTIONS 101
6.1 Conclusion 101
6.2 Limitations 102
6.3 Expectations 103
6.4 Suggested actions 103
REFERENCES 105
