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ASSESSMENT OF ENERGY TRANSITION BASED ON RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL IN UGANDA

초록/요약

Background: Waning global warming to 1.5 degrees celicious and enabling socio-economic development aspect that is inclusive and equitable are the world’s pressing challenges. To achieve the targets of the Paris Agreement on climate change, Africa must forego burning 90% of known reserves of coal, 34% of gas and 26% of oil (UNU-INRA, 2019). In Uganda, hydropower largely facilitates renewable energy access for social and productive use, most of energy service sub-sectors are still utilizing biomass and fossils as their main primary energy source However, this status quo needs to be waned by a shift to development and utilization of new and renewables (energy transition). Due to insufficient empirical evidence, it’s not clear whether Uganda as developing country, will achieve this energy transition by 2050. This study was therefore meant to analyze the possibilities of energy transition in Uganda based on existing renewable energy resource potential. Methods: The three scenarios were developed, i . e . solar-promo, Fixed-hydro, and the m e r g e d case, t h e s e w e r e r a n using the GCAM-EML, the calibrated data (as a reference case) was benchmarked and validated from Ugandan country’s data (MEMD, 2020) as well as IEA data, World Bank, and IRENA. Keyed in the scenario files, run through prepared model workspace. The reference scenario represents a case where no policy implication related to energy transition pathways in adopting RE resources potential (RE’s) over the modeling period, from 2020 to 2050. The alternative scenario presented an efficiency improvements, due advancement of solar-Promotion, clean-biomass, it’s a hypothesis which is based on the reference scenario, to assess the effects of public policy support for RE enrolment with associated cost. It should be noted that any energy-technology share, is ultimately determined by results of cost competition of different technologies. The alternative scenario, was modeled and simulated while adjusting the variables i.e . share-weight value and over-night capital cost of PV, this trial mechanism while choosing-varying close-range of figured values under PV analysis was monitored and balanced through (GCAM- EML) simulation until 20% government commitment target was arrived at. Under solar PV Sub- sector model analysis, the share-weight of PV technology under “results analysis” model-simulation, was varied, right from range of 1.00 to 0.17, of its over-night capital cost. This 0.17 was simulated and applied from 2025-2050 excluding 2015 – 2020 (base year) with a no further adjustment. The intent of this, implied that the government is assumed to support about 50% to solar promo increment, to subsidies the LCOE, aiming to arrive at policy target of 20% generation by share to the electricity mix. The above projection was considered based the underlying assumptions data from Uganda energy system pendant on – Hydro between and / or above 80% shared generation, in account that it might not go below 75% at BAU with fixed value of 75% share from 2025 – 2050, this was the fixed hydro scenario case. Whereas SWOT analysis was meant to comprehensively evaluate the structural relationship between strategies meant to ensure energy transition by 2050. Results: Uganda’s energy system scenario, predicts that due to her RE resource in 2020, after introduction of solar PV, its share stood at 0.13% and projects a 20.79% share by 2040, under reference case. However, in the alternative case, the solar- Promotion alone without looking at the merged scenarios, there exists an exponential growth in the share of solar energy. In 2020, 0.13% of electricity came from solar. And the results shows that in 2040, the share of solar will growth up to 44.11. % almost surpassing the national policy of 20% target for solar generation share. In 2040, the total electricity generation, simulated solely from solar shoots up to 69,532 (GWh). By Looking at the 2050’s energy transition pathway, this study estimated a total investment cost of USD $ 940,831,900 under an alternative scenario with a significant PV incremental generation share of 9408.319 (GWh) from 6993.552 (GWh) at USD $ 699,355,200 from 2025. The CO2 emissions reduction projections for the electricity sub-sector were analyzed, and the results that under the merged scenario, there is a significant drop in CO2 emissions for from 2020 and 2040, it’s a promising scenario for waning down CO2 emissions, however in the fixed hydro scenario, results showed a slight increase from 2020 up to 2040 of 0.2055 MtCO2e and 1.9695 MtCO2e, respectively. Conclusion: The solar PV scenario if adopted, will stimulate energy transition drive by 2050 at a cost of approximately USD $ 978,163,202, which presupposes a significant 0.27% of the country’s GDP. The energy transition strategic action and plan (ETSAP) based on a weighed-score from various key influencing factors is drawn applicable to Uganda’s case scenario. An ideal sequential structure of stages to a strategic model [bottom-top model] for energy transition pathway is formulated as a country’s benchmark. In quest to address adverse effects from environment (deforestation) and energy poverty. In this study, the alternative scenario (under the model) is recommended to be adopted by government in consideration of foreign climate funding pledges and support from the development partners for sustainably achieve the energy transition target by 2050. Key words: Renewable energy, Energy transition, GCAM-EML, SWOT analysis, Uganda.

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목차

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Energy Sector in Uganda 1
1.2.1 Energy Resources 2
1.2.2 Electricity Generation share by source 5
1.2.3 Annual electricity prices 6
1.2.4 Electricity consumption by sector in Uganda 6
1.3 Renewable Energy situation in Uganda 7
1.4 Motivators and drivers of renewable energy development and energy transition 7
1.4.1 Disaster hazard threats 7
1.4.2 Population 8
1.4.2.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 8
1.4.3 Agriculture based economy 8
1.4.4 Policy and Legal Framework 9
1.4.4.1 National Climate Change Policy, 2021 9
1.4.4.2 Energy Policy 2023 9
1.4.4.3 Other related policies and strategies 9
1.5 Problem statement 10
1.6 Research Questions 10
1.7 Significance of the study 10
1.8 Objectives of the study 11
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW 12
2.1 Energy transition and net zero 12
2.2 Renewable Energy and Energy transition 13
2.3 Electrification and energy transition 15
2.4 Renewable energy technology is public good 16
2.4.1 Increase investments in renewables 17
2.5 The theory of Multi Level Perspective 17
2.6 Gaps in existing studies 19
CHAPTER THREE: MODEL AND DATA SOURCE 20
3.1 Methods 20
3.1.1 SWOT Analysis 20
3.1.2 GCAM EML 21
3.2 Research design 22
3.3 A case study on FiT’s 22
3.3.1 RE scenario effect on Uganda’s deforestation trend 23
3.3.2 Critical Policy Analysis 23
3.4 Overview of an Energy System in GCAM 24
3.5 Uganda’s projections share by source of energy mix and investments. 27
3.6 Social-economic indicators 28
3.7 Future Electricity Demand 30
3.7.1 Future perspectives under electricity subsector 30
3.7.2 Electricity Generation and share by source 31
3.7.3 GCAM – EML [scenarios and simulation] 32
CHAPTER FOUR: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 35
4.1 Renewable energy resources as a basis for energy transition 35
4.1.1New Renewables 36
4.2 Results from GCAM EML 36
4.2.1 Electricity subsector structure in GCAM 37
4.2.2 Simulation design 38
4.2.3 A snapshot of other energy service sector based on calibrated data (reference scenario) 42
4.3 Electricity sector: Results 45
4.3.1 Primary energy mix (simulated results) 45
4.4 Electricity mix 47
4.4.1 Default/ initial scenario case 47
4.4.2 Fixed-output_ Hydro scenario 48
4.4.3 Solar PV-promo / increment scenario 49
4.4.4 Relation between shared-weight, cost and share 50
4.5 Cost analysis for solar PV energy 51
4.6 Electricity costs by subsector 51
4.7 CO2 Emissions 54
4.8 Discussions 55
4.8.1 Feasibility of Alternative scenario 56
4.8.2 Significance of Alternative scenario feasibility 57
4.9 Factors influencing a shift to renewable energy in Uganda 58
4.9.1 Uganda’s strength towards [ET] energy transition pathways 59
4.9.2 Flaws and weakness to country’s ET 60
4.9.3 Opportunities in Uganda towards ET 61
4.9.4 Terrorizations into Uganda’s energy transition 62
4.9.5 Factor’s analytics 62
4.9.6 Schemes meant to improve energy transition paradigm in Uganda 64
4.9.7 The Strengths-Opportunities paired-strategies attained by depending on internal strengths to counteract external opportunities. 65
4.9.8 Discussion of results under SWOT model 66
CHAPTER FIVE: CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 68
5.1 Conclusion 68
5.2 Policy Implications 68
5.3 Uganda’s projected energy system scenario 70
REFERENCES 71
Appendices 74
Appendix I: Priority Adaptation actions for the Energy Sector 74
Appendix II: Installed Electricity Generation (MEMD, 2020) 75
Appendix III: Quick facts about Uganda 76

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