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ANALYZING GHANA’S SOLAR POTENTIAL AND ITS INTEGRATION INTO THE ENERGY MIX USING GCAM-EML

초록/요약

The total primary energy supply (TPES) of Ghana is diversified. In 2021, natural gas accounted for about 35% of the TPES with biomass, oil and solar contributing 34%, 26%, and less than 1% respectively. Hydro contributes about 4% of Ghana’s TPES in the same period. Ghana is determined to increase its non-hydro RE component in its energy mix to 10% and reduce CO2 emissions by 64 MTC (conditional) by 2030 as part of its nationally determined contribution (NDC). Ghana receives 5.0-6.5 kWh/m2/day of solar irradiation daily, which makes solar energy an attractive technology with a high potential to grow the non-hydro component of the country’s energy mix to achieve the NDC target. This study employed GCAM-EML to assess the potential of solar energy to achieve Ghana’s NDC target. It also explored the further contribution of hydroelectric generation in securing energy security and reducing CO2 emissions in the country. After the implementation of the assumptions, the share of solar energy in the energy mix is found to be 22.18% as compared to 2.44% in the Reference scenario by 2030. This would help the government achieve its NDC target. Projections for 2050 under the Gh_incr_solar scenario show a generation output of 57,684.9 GWh, a significant contrast to the 10,136 GWh estimated under the Reference scenario. The LCOE for solar under the Gh_incr_solar scenario is 1975$ 5.76 which is about half (1975$ 10.19) cost under the Reference scenario by 2030. The study also found a significant increase in the share of hydro in energy generation after the Gh_fix_hydro scenario. The Reference scenario shows a decreasing share of the hydroelectric generation trend. Comparatively, under the Gh_fix_hydro scenario, the generation from hydro is maintained at about 38% of the energy mix in each target year. Furthermore, the combined implementation of the two assumptions, that is the solar and the Gh_fix_hydro had a positive impact on the energy sector by increasing electricity generation and reducing CO2 emissions. Total CO2 emission would be reduced by 39.48% compared with the projection from the Reference scenario by 2030 while total electricity generation would increase by 4.7% within the same period. The Gh_incr_solar scenario was found to cost about 0.18% to 0.37% of GDP in each target year. The implementation of the Gh_incr_solar scenario is deemed feasible with the support of external funding.

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목차

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Causes of Growing Demand for Electricity in Ghana 2
1.3 The Current Energy Situation in Ghana 4
1.4 Ghana's Electricity Sector 5
1.5 Problem Statement . 9
1.6 Objectives of the Study . 10
1.7 Significance and limitation of the Study 10
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW . 12
2.1 Fossil Fuels in Global Electricity Generation 12
2.2 Effects of Using Fossil Fuel for Electricity Generation 14
2.3 Drivers of the Global Energy Transition 16
2.4 Net-Zero 17
2.5 Electricity: The Future of Global Energy 18
2.6 Global Solar Energy Potential for Electricity Generation 19
2.7 Solar Potentials in Africa . 19
2.8 Barriers to Renewable Energy Integration 20
2.9 Solar Energy Potential in Ghana 22
2.10 Policy Initiatives and Regulatory Framework 23
2.11 Challenges in Solar Energy Development 23
2.12 Progress and Initiatives in Solar Development in Ghana . 24
CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY 25
3.1 Introduction . 25
3.2 Reference Energy System of Ghana 31
3.3 Scenario Design, Data and Model 34
CHAPTER 4: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 49
4.1 Gh_incr_Solar Scenario (Ghana Increase Solar) . 49
4.2 Gh_fix_hydro Scenario 58
4.3 Combined Scenario . 65
CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 70
5.1 Conclusion 70
5.2 Recommendation . 72
REFERENCE 73

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