LONG-TERM EMISSIONS REDUCTION IMPACT OF LIGHT DUTY ELECTRIC VEHICLE IN INDONESIA USING GCAM-EML
- 주제(키워드) GCAM-EML , Carbon Tax , EV Subsidies , Light Duty Vehicle (LDV) , Solar PV , Transportation Costs , Electricity Costs , GHG Emissions.
- 주제(DDC) 333.79
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 Professor Suduk Kim
- 발행년도 2023
- 학위수여년월 2023. 2
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 국제대학원 융합에너지학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000032348
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
The 4W and 2W Light duty vehicles (LDV) are the most widely used vehicles in Indonesia which are currently in the transition phase towards the electrification process. Several incentives and subsidies are provided along with the imposition of an additional vehicle tax for ICE and a carbon tax on the power generation system to curb emissions. Pursuing the NRE's energy mix while providing sufficient electricity supply for the use of EVs, individuals and the industrial sector are given the freedom to install solar PV and export electricity to Indonesia Electricity Company (IEC). The various policies above are packaged in 2 main scenarios outside of Business as Usual (BAU). The results of the Moderate (MODT) scenario, which is oriented towards subsidies and incentives in GCAM-EML, show that the policy of installing solar PV for houses and industries reduces the cost of electricity to USD 0.02/KWh makes it more competitive than the cost of electricity from coal power plants which is USD 0.09/KWh. In the transportation sector, providing a 30% subsidy for 2W EVs, in the long term can reduce CO2 emissions to near zero. Meanwhile, the results of the tax-oriented Low Carbon (LOWC) scenario test show that 30% vehicle tax in the long term will increase 54.5% of ICE transportation costs to USD 1.76/pass-km, while lowering EV transportation costs by USD 0.17/pass-km cheaper than ICE. In the short term, MODT has an emission reduction impact of 30.2% compared to BAU, while 59.7% in the long term for both scenarios compared to BAU.
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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Research Background 1
1.2 Research Motivation 3
1.3 Research Objective and Scope 4
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 7
2.1 Review of Previous Studies 7
2.2 Indonesia's Population and Economic Conditions 8
2.3 Transportation Sector in Indonesia 10
2.3.1 Share of Vehicle Population 10
2.3.2 Length of Road 12
2.3.3 Type of Energy Consumption 13
2.3.4 Fuel Subsidy and Emissions Generated 14
2.3.5 Railway, Sea, and Air Transport 17
2.4 Electricity Sector in Indonesia 19
2.4.1 Condition of the Electric Power System 19
2.4.2 Electric Vehicle (EV) Energy Needs 21
2.4.3 Energy Mix and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Reduction 23
CHAPTER 3 PLAN FOR EV IMPLEMENTATION 26
3.1 Automotive Industry in Indonesia 26
3.2 Indonesia's EV Regulation 28
3.3 Battery Industry for EV 30
3.4 EV Industry 32
CHAPTER 4 METHODOLOGY AND SCENARIOS 37
4.1 The GCAM-EML Model 37
4.2 Energy System and Transport Sector in GCAM 38
4.3 Indonesia's Transportation Sector in GCAM-EML 41
4.4 Scenario Design, Data and Model 42
CHAPTER 5 RESULTS AND INTERPRETATIONS 49
5.1 Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario 49
5.2 Moderate (MODT) Scenario 53
5.3 Low Carbon (LOWC) Scenario 57
5.4 Road Vehicles Projection 61
5.5 Scenario Comparison 64
CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS 69
6.1 Conclusions 69
6.2 Recommendations 71
REFERENCES 73
