SUITABILITY ANALYSIS OF SMALL SOLAR PV COMMUNITY PROJECTS FOR UNIVERSAL ELECTRICITY USING HOMER : A CASE OF NORTHERN KENYA
- 주제(키워드) LCOE , micro-grids , Kenya , result based finance , marginalized , solar PV hybrids , MTF , KOSAP
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 Young Chang Kim
- 발행년도 2021
- 학위수여년월 2021. 2
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 국제대학원 융합에너지학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000030440
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
An estimated 20% of the Kenyan population is currently without electricity. Most live in the 14 counties and regions classified as marginalized under the criteria of the Commission on Revenue Allocation (CRA). Of these 14 counties, 13 lie within areas of high solar insolation averaging 6KWh/day. The government of Kenya, in collaboration with various local and international bodies initiated the extended Kenya National Electrification Strategy (KNES) 2018-2022 to achieve universal electricity access by 2022. The largest project under KNES, the Kenya Off-grid Solar Access Project (KOSAP), which is jointly implemented with the World Bank, has recommended the installation of solar PV micro-grids and Solar Home Systems (SHS) to meet the need for clean, reliable and sustainable electricity for more than 2 million households. This project is estimated to cost $2.75B in subsidies the course of 10 years for 37,500 households to be connected to solar PV mini-grids, and approximately 1.96M households to be connected through stand-alone Solar Home Systems (SHS). Other key players in the universal electrification campaign include the private sector, GIZ, and various other international bodies. This study uses Homer software to model the performance of very small solar PV hybrid micro-grids (1-20KW) in supplying community energy to very remote areas in northern Kenya. The study uses Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), Cost per installed KW, Renewable Fraction (RF), and annual electricity production. It also compares the findings under HOMER to contemporary figures for public micro-grids in Kenya and the region. The study considers as sensitivity variables, the funding and market discount rates, the market inflation rate, and the fuel price fluctuation.
more목차
Chapter 1: Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Thesis Statement 2
1.3 Methodology 4
1.4 Research Aim and Objective 4
1.5 Report Structure 4
Chapter 2: Literature Review 5
2.1 Background 5
2.2 Kenya Energy Situation 5
2.3 Solar PV status in Kenya 7
2.4 Solar Mini Grids in Kenya 8
2.5 Documented LCOE estimates for SHS in Kenya 10
2.6 Solar PV willingness to pay in rural Kenya 12
2.7 Mini grid costs in Kenya 13
2.8 Grid connectivity costs in Kenya 15
2.9 Kenya National Electrification Strategy 2018-2022 16
2.10 Kenya Off-grid Solar Access Project (KOSAP) 18
2.11 World Bank's Multi-Tier Framework (MTF) for KOSAP product selection 19
2.12 KOSAP project summary data 20
2.13 Emerging service gaps in KOSAP and related frameworks. 20
Chapter 3: Methodology 23
3.0 Introduction 23
3.1 HOMER 23
3.2 Data collection criteria 24
3.2.1 Data modeling assumptions 25
3.2.2 Criteria for determining key performance indicators. 27
3.2.3 Data modelling locations 28
3.3 Organization of simulations 29
3.4 Similar studies conducted in Kenya and Africa. 30
Chapter 4: Modelling Results and Analysis 38
4.1 Modelling Scenarios 38
4.2 Simulation Results 38
4.2.1 Installed capacity 38
4.2.2 Inter site variation 39
4.3 Sensitivity analysis 40
4.3.1 Sensitivity of LCOE to base and market scenario 40
4.3.2 Sensitivity of LCOE with change in fuel price 42
4.4 Cost per KW variation with installed capacity sensitivity analysis 43
4.4.1 Sensitivity of Cost per KW versus Installed Capacity to fuel price 44
4.5 Scenario sensitivity analysis for yearly electricity production 45
4.6 Renewable fraction (RF) and pollution control 46
4.7 Small solar PV hybrid micro grids suitability analysis 47
Chapter 5: Conclusion and Recommendations 48
5.1 Conclusion 48
5.2 Limitations and Challenges 49
References 52
