IMPACT OF SAFEGUARDS ON THE ECONOMY OF ECUADOR
IMPACTO DE LAS SALVAGUARDIAS EN LA ECONOMIA DE ECUADOR
- 주제(키워드) Trade Balance , Safeguards , Ecuador
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 Sung-Hwan Kim
- 발행년도 2019
- 학위수여년월 2019. 8
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 국제대학원 국제통상학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000028990
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
Ecuador is one of the countries in Latin America that did not achieve industrialization with the ISI model in the 1950s, nor did it after the Oil Boom in the 1970s. On the contrary, it became dependent on exports of this resource, which makes it vulnerable to the volatility of its international price per barrel. Another external factor that affects the Ecuadorian economy is the appreciation of the dollar, being that, USD was adopted as a local currency since the year 2000. The international financial crisis of 2008 brought with it the combination of these two factors in a negative way for Ecuador, that is, fall in oil price and appreciation of the dollar. This event, which was happening for the first time, caused the deficit in the Trade Balance to be unsustainable. Therefore, the Ecuadorian government decided to apply safeguards as an emergency measure in early 2009. These were mostly quantitative restrictions, using the Infant Industry protection argument as justification. Based on this first experience, the Ecuadorian government applied safeguards for the second time in 2015, with the difference that this time, they were applied as Ad-Valorem tariffs only and a wider range of import products. The main objective of this research work is to analyze the impact of these measures on the Ecuadorian economy, since their results were unexpected and differ with those announced by the government of that time. The main conclusion reached in this research work is that, while safeguard measures used to be considered the best option to reduce imports and correct trade balance, it is proved these outcomes as temporary results. Thus, once the measure is eliminated, it can cause an even greater deficit than the previous one, which can become a malicious cycle where the only way out would be the application of new safeguards.
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Contents
ABSTRACT i
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION 1
1. 1 Background 1
1. 2 Problem Statement 2
1. 3 Research Objectives 2
1. 4 Research Questions 2
1. 5 Methodology 3
1. 6 Thesis outline 3
CHAPTER II: BACKGROUND OF ECUADOR AND PROTECTIONISM IN LATIN AMERICA 5
2. 1 The Great Depression 5
2. 2 Industrialization by Import Substitution (ISI) 5
2. 3 The “Oil Boom” of the 1970s 7
2. 4 Latin American debt crisis in the 1980s 8
2. 5 Reduction of protectionism in the 1990s 10
2. 6 Dollarization Ecuador in 2000 12
CHAPTER III: TRADE DEFENSE MEASURES: SAFEGUARDS 14
3. 1 Legal Framework of Trade Defense Measures 14
3. 2 Types of Safeguard Measures 15
3. 3 Trade Agreements of Ecuador 16
3. 4 Structure of the Balance of Payments in Ecuador 17
3. 5 Trade Balance 18
CHAPTER IV: APPLICATION OF SAFEGUARDS IN ECUADOR 20
4. 1 Safeguards 2009 20
4.1.1 WTO and BOP policies 21
4.1.2 Infant Industry Argument 21
4.1.3 Modifications to the applied measure 22
4.1.4 Results of the application of safeguards 2009 23
4.2 Safeguards 2015 25
4.2.1 Devaluation of the Colombian and Peruvian currencies 26
4.2.2 Results of the application of safeguards 2015 27
4.2.3 Extension of the safeguard measure 30
4.2.4 Difference between safeguards 2009 and 2015 31
CHAPTER V: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 33
5. 1 Conclusions 33
5. 2 Recommendations 33
REFERENCES 36
APPENDICES 40
