INVESTIGATING THE CORRELATION BETWEEN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM LOSSES AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY – JAMAICA CASE STUDY
- 주제(키워드) Energy Policy , Government , National Development , Electricity System Losses , Unemployment , Poverty , Poverty Alleviation
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 Jung Jae Sung
- 발행년도 2019
- 학위수여년월 2019. 2
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 국제대학원 융합에너지학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000028282
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
Global energy trends reveal greater appreciation for energy conservation and improved energy efficiency. In the Energy Trilemma there is now increased importance of energy security and environmental responsibility compared to energy economics. In light of these standards it is not sustainable for any economy to tolerate high levels of inefficiencies and losses, and the general trend in the world in recent years has been for reduced Electricity System Losses. Despite this, Jamaica consistently has been among the 12 highest levels of Electricity System Losses in the world. This study has shown that the level of Unemployment in Jamaica can be explicitly counted among the likely determinants for these high levels of Electricity System Losses. At least since 2002 there has been a significant direct positive correlation between Unemployment and Electricity System Losses even when only 85% of the population had Access to Electricity. Furthermore, as of 2007 when consistently over 90% of the Jamaican population has Access to Electricity, the amount of MWh of Electricity System Losses in Jamaica has been shown, by the analysis conducted in this investigation, to be statistically correlated to the number of Unemployed persons with a Pearson Coefficient of Correlation of 0.69, and a Spearman rank coefficient of 0.62. The bivariate linear regression, used in this study to model the relationship between Electricity System Losses and Unemployment in Jamaica, rejected the null hypothesis. It is however recommended that other factors need to be considered, since it was also clearly established that the Electricity Losses are not determined solely by the poor and unemployed people. A qualitative review of best practices in addressing Electricity System Losses worldwide underscored the importance of developing robust, albeit culturally tailored, Government policies especially for mitigating non-technical losses. This study proposed three such policy actions, to target the calculated potential economic impact of approximately 17,000 Million US dollars related to 5 years of System Losses, as well as other intangibles.
more목차
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION: RESEARCH BASIS 1
1.1 Background 1
1.1.1 Preamble 1
1.1.2 Global Perspective – Energy Science and Policy Context (World) 2
1.1.3 National Perspective – Electricity Sector Context (Jamaica) 4
1.1.4 Literature Review 8
1.1.5 Gaps Identified 12
1.2 Research Framework 12
1.2.1 Scope and Terms of the Research 12
1.2.2 Significance of the Research 16
1.2.3 Research Problem 17
1.2.4 Thesis Statement 18
1.2.5 Aims and Objectives 18
CHAPTER 2. INVESTIGATION: RESEARCH DESIGN 19
2.1 Quantitative Computation 19
2.1.1 Data Sources 19
2.1.2 Computational Tools 21
2.1.3 Data Analysis 22
2.1.4 Expected Results 24
2.2 Comparative Compilation 26
2.2.1 Data Requirement 26
2.2.2 Data Sources 26
2.2.3 Criteria for Comparisons 27
2.2.4 Expected Findings 27
CHAPTER 3. INFORMATION: RESEARCH RESULTS AND FINDINGS 28
3.1 Results from Statistical Computations 28
3.1.1 Correlation Results 28
3.1.2 Scatter Plot of Primary Variables 28
3.1.3 Bivariate Regression Results 29
3.1.4 Comparison of Trends in the Primary Variables 30
3.2 Findings from Comparisons with Selected Countries 30
3.2.1 Trends with Minor Changes in Losses 30
3.2.2 Trends with Major Changes in Losses 31
CHAPTER 4. INTERPRETATION: ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION 33
4.1 Results from Statistical Computations 33
4.1.1 Correlation Results 33
4.1.2 Scatter Plot of Primary Variables (Trendline Added) 33
4.1.3 Bivariate Regression Results 34
4.1.4 Comparing Results of Alternate Scenarios 36
4.2 Summary of Findings from Country Comparisons 38
4.3 Applying Lessons Learnt – Proposed Policy Positions 42
CHAPTER 5. IMPLEMENTATION: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 43
5.1 Conclusions 43
5.2 Recommendations 43
5.3 Summing Up 44
초 록 45
BIBLIOGRAPHY 46
APPENDICES 50
APPENDIX I: CONCISE COUNTRY COMPARISONS I
APPENDIX II: STATISTICAL SENSITIVITY SCENARIOS VI
APPENDIX III: PROPOSED POLICY POSITIONS XII
