DEMOGRAPHY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE EFFECTS OF POPULATION INCREASE AND AGE STRUCTURE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH : CASE STUDY: NIGERIA
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 강신구
- 발행년도 2015
- 제출일 2014-12-29
- 학위수여년월 2015. 2
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 국제대학원 국제개발협력과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000019094
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
Many economists, demographers and other social scientists in recent years have been strict on the fact that population growth prohibits, promotes, or plays no role in the economic development of a country or region. The debates that have resulted from these assertions or claims have created three different schools of thoughts, and each school of thought had produced evidences or cited theories as a solid base for its argument. These schools of thought comprise of the pessimists, optimists, and neutralists who all represent different debates or arguments on the possible positive, negative or neutral effects of population growth. Following these arguments put forward by the various schools, there is one critical factor that had been left unnoticed which is the age composition of the population. Whether population growth is independent, advantageous, or detrimental to economic growth, will very much depend on the age composition of the population and the roles that members of the various groups will play towards economic development. Africa has a large and unexploited human resource in the form of young men and women between the ages of 25 to 45 whose full potential is yet to be realized and exploited because of insufficient education, health, and social welfare with appropriate employment and labor policies. Nigeria which highly represents this rich continent as its most populous nation, and largest economy will be used as a case study. It will further be used in comparison to Germany which is the European Union’s most populous nation and with a fast growing ageing population, to bring out the positive prospects and advantages that Nigeria possesses to enhance its economy. The West African country can capitalize on these advantages if it adopts and carefully and cautiously pursues the above mentioned policies.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
DEDICATION v
ABSTRACT viii
List of Figures xii
List of Tables xii
Acronyms/Abbreviations xii
Chapter One: GENERAL INTRODUCTION
1.1-Introductory Note 1
1.2-Background to the Study 2
1.3-Statement of the Problem 3
1.4-Purpose and Goal of the Study 5
1.5-Delimitations/Scope of the Study 5
1.6-Literature Review 6
1.7-Research Questions 12
1.8-Research Hypothesis 13
1.9-Research Objectives 13
1.10-Significance of the Study 14
1.11-Research Methodology 14
1.12-Limitations of the Study 16
Chapter Two: THE ORIGINS AND DEBATE OVER THE EFFECTS OF POPULATION CHANGE
2.1-Introductory Note 17
2.2-The Pessimist School of Thought: Population Growth Restricts Economic Development 19
2.3-The Optimist School of Thought: Population Change can Fuel Economic Growth 24
2.4-The Neutralist School of Thought: Population Change has No Significant Effect on Economic growth 27
2.5-The Importance of Age Structure 28
2.6-Conclusion 30
Chapter Three: CHANGES IN THE POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE-THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
3.1-Introductory Note 32
3.2-The Demographic Transition: Declining Mortality and Fertility 33
3.3-The Demographic Dividend 40
3.4-Labor Supply 41
3.5-Savings 42
3.6-Human Capital 43
3.7-Conclusion 45
Chapter Four: POPULATION CHANGE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH-A CASE STUDY COMPARISON
4.1-Introductory Note 47
4.2-Nigeria 48
4.3-A Demographic Dividend 54
4.4-Present Challenges 55
4.5 Ebola Virus 58
4.6 Boko Haram 59
4.7-Massive Potential 60
4.8-Germany 62
4.9-Conclusion 68
Chapter Five: DISCUSSIONS, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS-THE RELEVANCE OF THE POLICY ENVIRONMENT
5.1-Introductory Note 69
5.2-Diversity 77
5.3-Conclusion 84
GENERAL CONCLUSION 86
BIBLIOGRAPHY 91
List of Figures
Figure 1 : Nigeria's Population Pyramid 51
Figure 2: Germany's Population Pyramid 63
Figure 3: Cartogram based on Nigeria’s Regional Population, 2012 70
Figure 4: Population Projection 72
Figure 5: Nigeria’s Support Ratio 1950-2050 75
Figure 6: Nigeria’s GDP Growth with a Demographic Dividend 77
List of Tables
Table 1: Nigeria’s Population and Age Structure 51
Table 2: Germany’s Population and Age Structure 63
Acronyms/Abbreviations
AIDS: Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome
CIA: Central Intelligence Agency
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
HIV: Human Immunodeficiency Virus
IEA: International Energy Agency
IMF: International Monetary Fund
OECD: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
UN: United Nations
US: United States
EU: European Union
NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organization
