The Effect of Ideological Indifferences on Voting Intention Changes : Empirical Evidence from the ANES Time Series Cumulative data
- 주제(키워드) Voting behavior
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 Prof. Woojin Moon
- 발행년도 2015
- 제출일 2014-12-15
- 학위수여년월 2015. 2
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 일반대학원 정치외교학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000018989
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
This thesis is specifically concerned with the effect of ideological indifferences on voting intention changes in a short term. Changes in party Identification has been one of the most intensively studied subjects of voting behavior. However, the role and influence of the ideological idifferencees of changes of voters’ candidate preferences during the election campaign has been neglected in the literature even in the studies regarding short-term partisan changes. Thus, discovering a new variable, that partially explains party switching during the election campaign, contributes to filling an important research gap. The central argument of the thesis is that, when a voter does not see a big ideological difference between candidates, his initial voting intention can be easily altered during the election campaign. This hypothesis is tested by the American National Election Studies time series Cumulative data. The results of the logistic regression show that the more voters are ideological indifferent to the candidates, the more they change their preferences and vote for the candidate other than the one they originally indicated.
more목차
Aknowledgements .............. i
Abstract ............................................ ii
Table of Contents ........................ iii
List of Tables ................................ iv
List of Figures and Graphs ...................... v
1 Introduction ...................................... 1
2 Literature review ................................... 4
2.1 Sociological model of voting behavior ............ 5
2.2 Psychological model of voting behavior............. 7
2.3 Theory of rational choice .................... 9
2.4 Articles concerning to short-term changes in party ID ..... 12
3 Causal mechanism and hypothesis .............. 16
4 Research method and data ................. 21
5 Results ............................................ 27
5.1 Concluding Remarks ............................... 37
6 Conclusion ...................................... 39
Appendix ................................ 42
Bibliography ....................................... 47
