the effect of foreign direct investment inflows on export/import: an empirical analysis in Lao PDR
- 주제(키워드) International Business
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 Sung Minje
- 발행년도 2014
- 제출일 2014-06-19
- 학위수여년월 2014. 7
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 국제대학원 국제경영학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000017283
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
ABSTRACT The main purpose of this thesis is to find the effect of FDI inflows on export/import performance in Lao PDR. An advanced Econometric Methodology is conducted to analyst annual time series data of variables for the period of 1990 to 2012. Cointegration technique and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analyst short run as well as long run relationship of FDI inflows and export/import performance and Granger Causality investigates the feedback effect from export/import performance to FDI inflows. According to empirical results, the relationship of FDI inflows and export performance is not identified. Therefore, FDI inflows will not contribute to boost export growth in the short run and long run. However, the relationship of FDI inflows and import performance is proved. So, FDI inflows have positively impact on import performance both in short run and long run which means that an increasing of FDI inflows lead to increase import performance. In addition, there is one-way causality relationship running from FDI inflows to import performance, but the feedback effect from import performance to FDI inflows is not found. In order to boost exportation through FDI inflows, the Lao government needs to formulate its investment and export policies as well as to implement in the efficiency and effectiveness both in National and International level. Moreover, local businesses are encouraged to invest in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) which would contribute directly to sustainable economic development in general, to boost exportation and reduce importation in particular. Keywords: Foreign direct investment inflows, export/import performance, Cointegration, Vector Error Correction Model, Granger Causality, Lao PDR.
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CONTENTS
ABSTRACT: I
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: II
CONTENTS: III
LIST OF TABLES: VI
LIST OF FIGURES: VII
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS: VIII
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Statement of problem 2
1.3 Purpose of study 2
1.4 Significant of study 3
1.5 Limitation of study 4
CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW 5
CHAPTER III: OVERVIEW OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT INFLOWS AND EXPORT, IMPORT PERFORMANCE IN LAO PDR, METHODOLOGY AND DATA 11
3.1 Foreign Direct Investment 11
3.2 Exportation and Importation 16
3.3 Research hypothesis 20
3.3.1 Export model 20
3.3.2 Import model 21
3.4 Methodology 23
3.4.1 Unit root test 23
3.4.2 Lag order selection 24
3.4.3 Cointegration test 24
3.4.4 Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) 24
3.4.5 Granger Causality test 27
3.5 Data Sources and variables description 27
3.5.1 Real Export/Import of goods and services for Lao PDR (EX/IM) 27
3.5.2 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) 28
3.5.3 Domestic and major trading partners real income (GDP) 28
3.5.4 Real effective exchange rate index for Lao PDR (REER) 29
CHAPTER IV: EMPIRICAL RESULT AND DISCUSSION 30
4.1 Testing for unit root 30
4.2 Lag selection criteria 31
4.3 Cointegration test 33
4.4 Result of Vector Error Correction Model 35
4.4.1 Result of Export model 35
4.4.2 Result of Import model 38
4.5 Granger Causality test 41
CHAPTER V: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 44
5.1 Conclusion 44
5.2 Recommendations and future research 46
REFERENCES: 47
WEBSITES: 51
APPENDIX 1: 52
APPENDIX 2: 53
