IMPACT OF EURO-ZONE SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS
- 발행기관 Ajou University, Graduate School of International Studies
- 지도교수 Young-Joon Park
- 발행년도 2013
- 제출일 2013-6-21
- 학위수여년월 2013. 8
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 국제대학원 국제통상학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000014695
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
This Study investigates the impact of Euro zone debt crisis on Ethiopian real GDP growth. The analysis showed that Ethiopian economy inherently not vulnerable for external shocks because of the country's low degree of integration with external world. However, it is difficult for the country to recover from crisis once affected by the economic shock. To enumerate the effect of the Euro zone sovereign debt crisis on Ethiopian economic growth, the study also used the time series econometric model. After the stationarity and co-integration test, the study formulated the restricted VAR model. The Euro zone sovereign debt crisis was represented by dummy variable. The result implies that Ethiopian real GDP was not significantly affected by Euro zone sovereign debt crisis. Therefore, the country has to react using pre-emptive measures by improving domestic policy.
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ABSTRACT i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ii
LIST OF TABLES vi
LIST OF FIGURES vii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS viii
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Statement of the study 3
1.3 Objective of the study 4
1.4 Significance of the Study 5
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW 7
2.1 Definition of debt crisis 7
2.2 Theoretical literature 8
2.2.1 Debt Crisis of the 1980s 8
2.2.2 Debt crisis of the 1990s 9
2.3 Theoretical Framework 11
2.3.1 Mundell- Fleming Model 13
2.4 Empirical Literature 16
CHAPTER THREE: ETHIOPIAN ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE 17
3.1 Ethiopian vulnerability to exogenous shocks like the Euro zone crisis relative to EAC countries 17
3.1.1 Trade channel 17
3.1.2 Remittance channel 18
3.1.3 Foreign direct investment channel (FDI) 20
3.1.4 Official development assistance (ODA) channel 21
3.2 Ethiopian economic resilience to external shock 24
3.2.1 Macroeconomic stability index 24
3.2.2 Microeconomic market efficiency index 26
3.2.3 Good governance index 28
3.2.4 Social development index 29
CHAPTER FOUR: EMPIRICAL METHODOLOGY 34
4.1 Model specification 34
4.2 Data sources and characteristics of the variables 36
4.3 Estimation Strategy 37
4.4 Unit root test 38
4.4.1 The Dickey-Fuller (DF) and The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test 38
4.4.2 Phillips-Peron (PP) test 40
4.5 Co-integration 40
4.5.1 Engle- Granger test 40
4.5.2 Johansen test of Co-integration based on VAR 41
4.6 Estimating the ECM 43
4.7 Diagnostic checks 44
4.7.1 Autocorrelation test 44
4.7.2 Heteroskedasticity test 47
4.7.3 Residual normality test 47
4.7.4 Parameter stability test 48
CHAPTER FIVE: PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF RESULT 49
5.1 Empirical Results 49
5.1.1 Stationary test results 49
5.1.2 Optimal Lag Length Selection 53
5.2.3 Co integration test 53
5.1.4 Vector Error Correction Model 56
5.1.5 Diagnostic check tests 58
5.2 Impulse responses and variance decompositions 63
5.2.1 Impulse responses 64
5.2.2 Variance decomposition 65
CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION 68
6.1 Conclusions 68
6.2 Policy implication and recommendation 69
6.3 Limitation of the study 70
REFERENCES 71
Appendix 1: Confirmatory data analysis (unit root and stationary test result) 74
