Study of determinants of the farm soybean prices in USA.
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 발행년도 2010
- 제출일 2010-04-21
- 학위수여년월 2010. 7
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 국제대학원 국제경영학과
- 실제URI http://www.dcollection.net/handler/ajou/000000010837
- 본문언어 영어
- 저작권 아주대학교 논문은 저작권에 의해 보호받습니다.
초록/요약
The thesis investigates the potential for using the simpler, single-equation framework to simultaneous-equation for annual supply and demand analysis in order to clarify farm soybean prices determiners in U.S. The methodology developed goes from Ordinary Least Square (OLS) to Two-Stage-Least-Square (TSLS) analysis. The results showed that an OLS can suffer from simultaneity biases when it uses Stock-to-use Ratio (Goodwin, Schnepf and Dohlman, 2001), and a TSLS model can give consistent estimators. Moreover, this research showed that US Corn Prices, as well China？s soybean import and Argentina？s soybeans ending stocks have statistical significance since they are jointly determined with US farm soybean prices. Further studies should consider variables related with soybean industry, as trading of co-products made of soybeans, as well technological developments or even more variables representing demand patterns.  
more목차
1. Chapter I. Introduction 1
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Target group 4
1.3 Personal motivation 4
1.4 Research method 4
1.5 Structure of the thesis 4
2. Chapter II. Literature review 5
2.1 Theoretical review of modeling commodity prices 5
2.2 Long-term price movements 5
2.3 Medium-term price movements 6
2.4 Short-term price movements 8
3. Chapter III. World market situation 10
3.1 Current World Market situation 10
3.2 Government role in US crops. 11
4. Chapter IV. Method 13
4.1 Theory 13
4.2 Time-series testing methodology 14
5. Chapter V. Empirical Analysis 16
5.1 Data source and software used 16
5.2 Specification of the model and results 16
5.3 IVs for the TSLS regression 20
5.3.1 Endogeneity Test 21
5.4 TSLS regression 22
5.4.1 Heteroskedasticity in TSLS 23
5.4.2 Autocorrelation in TSLS 23
5.4.3 Comparison between OLS and TSLS 24
5.4.4 Normality Test ？ Histogram 24
5.4.5 Summary of descriptive statistics and Correlations 25
6. Chapter VI. Conclusions 27
7. References 29
8. Appendix 31
Endnotes 41
