케냐의 무역 규제 완화 정책 - 경제 성장 향상을 위한 수출 강화
Kenya's Trade Liberalization Policy - Pushing Exports to Enhance Economic Grouth
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 정경일
- 발행년도 2006
- 학위수여년월 2006. 8
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 및 전공 국제대학원 국제통상학과
- 본문언어 영어
초록/요약
ABSTRACT Despite Trade liberalization policy in which the government of Kenya has deliberately pushed for exports and opened its domestic market for foreign competition, the country has continued to experience difficulties in achieving high economic growth rates. This study explores the hypothesis that Kenya's Trade Liberalization Policy in which Pushing for Exports has taken center stage has only increased the probability of achieving higher economic growth and a lot more need to be done to achieve that goal. Adopting the ex-post approach and using the time series models, ordinary least squares (OLS) growth regression analysis, the gravity model, and intuitively applying the Heckscher-Ohlin model on factor endowment to assess the trade patterns between Kenya and its trading partners, this study affirms the hypothesis that the current trade liberalization policy and export promotion strategies have the potential of enhancing Kenya’s economic growth rate, but the government should address the identified challenges and drawbacks for the export-led growth policy to realize its objective. Limitations of the models used not withstanding, the results of OLS growth regression analysis show that Kenya’s exports, imports and total trade are indeed positively related to the GDP with imports robustly explaining Kenya’s economic growth more than exports or total trade. For the gravity model, the study finds statistically significant positive coefficients with GDP, GDP per capita, dummy variables such as membership to regional economic or trade integration, common border factors and non-reciprocal trade arrangements. As expected a negative relation is realized between distance and growth in total trade. The study has also ascertained intuitively that Kenya’s trade pattern is in line with the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. These results are broadly interpreted to be sources of desire to seek out more ways to strengthen the robustness depending on strength of relationship through appropriate policy formulation and implementation. The study equally describes, evaluates, conducts an objective measurement and presents an appraisal of the extent to which the government’s push for exports under the prevailing trade liberalization policy has achieved its development objective. Some of the recommendations for the trade liberalization policy objectives to be realized include, ensuring appropriate synergistic interaction of trade policy and other factors of production; need for adjustment programs upon policy change and implementation; initiating comprehensive and homegrown trade facilitation programs; appropriate use of safeguard measures to reap the potentials in the regional economic integration and a purge on poor governance, weak institutional arrangements and incidence of corruption.
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Advisers Signature Page ii
Abstract iii
Acknowledgement iv
Dedication vi
Abbreviations and Acronyms vii
List of Tables and Figures ix
Chapter 1: Introduction 1
1.1 General 1
1.2 Country Background Information 1
1.3 Problem Statements and Research Questions 2
1.4 Motivation and Justification of the Study 3
1.5 Objectives of the Study 5
1.6 Structure of the Study 5
1.7 Limitation of the Study 6
Chapter 2: Review of Related Literature 7
2.1 Literature Review 7
2.2 Summary of Literature Review and Way forward 18
2.3 Methodology and Scope of the study 19
2.4 Definitions of Key Concepts and Terms 20
Chapter 3: Kenya’s Trade Liberalization Policy: Facts and Evidence 22
Part I: Kenya’s Economic Structure and the History of Trade and Industrial Policy 22-28
3.1 Highlights on Kenya’s Economic Structure 22
3.2 Brief History of Kenya’s Trade and Industrial Policy 23
3.3 An Overview of Import Substitution Policy and Factors
that Led to Liberalization Policy 25
PART II: Government Efforts, Reforms and Strategies to
Sustain Trade Liberalization Policy 28
3.4 Reforms and Strategies to Promote Exports and Sustain Trade Liberalization Policy 28
(1) Export Promotion Program Office 28
(2) Tax Remission for Export Office 29
(3) Manufacturing Under Bond 29
(4) Export Processing Zone 30
(5) Establishment of Export Promotion Institutions and Strategic Alliances 31
(6) Regional Economic Integration Agreements 32
(7) Bilateral and Multilateral Trade Agreements 35
Chapter 4: Effects of Kenya’s Trade Liberalization Policy and Pushing for Exports on its Economic Growth 40
4.1 Cross-Country Ordinary Least Square growth Regression 40
4.2 Multicollinearity of Exports and Imports in the
Regression Analysis 45
4.3 Using Gravity Model to Analyze Trade liberalization
Policy, Pattern of Bilateral trade and its impact on
Economic Growth 4
4.4 Heckscher-Ohlin Trade Model on Kenya’s Trade
Liberalization Policy and Pushing Exports for
Economic Growth 52
Chapter 5: Challenges and Drawbacks that Kenya’s Trade Liberalization
Policy and Pushing of Exports for Economic Growth Need to Overcome 57
5.1. Kenya’s Economic Structure 57
5.2. Structural Reforms and Fiscal Policies 58
5.3. Export Subsidy Policies 59
5.4. Commodity Development Agencies
(KTDA, CBK, HCDA, FPEAK 59
5.5. Regional Economic Integration (EAC and COMESA) 60
5.6. Bilateral and Multilateral Trade Agreements 61-63
Chapter 6 - Conclusions and Recommendations 64
6.1. Conclusions 64
6.2. Recommendations 95
Appendix …………………………………………………….……………………………...74-105
References ………………………………………………….…………………………….….106-108
