The Effects of Exports on Economic Growth - The Case of Cameroon
The Effects of Exports on Economic Growth - The Case of Cameroon
- 주제(키워드) Economic Growth
- 발행기관 아주대학교
- 지도교수 김철환
- 발행년도 2006
- 학위수여년월 2006. 2
- 학위명 석사
- 학과 및 전공 국제대학원 국제경영학과
- 본문언어 영어
초록/요약
In recent times, the term export-led growth has attracted much attention. This sterm from the fact that the growth process in most developed countries and the NICs of Asia is a result of the emphasis on Export promotion. An integral part of export promotion is Economic liberalism and export diversification which are familiar to the developing country’s new trade policy arrangements. The Dabate has been on how to liberalized the economy in order to promote export so as to ensure that growth occures. But inspite of these debates, there is that universal common consencus that the quest for achieving the highest pinnacle of economic growth depends on how much a country deplores its production means in order to become a global player. The term Export-led growth has thus become a guiding banner for the developing countries in their quest to join the club of developed economies.The questions to be handled in this paper therefore, evolves on; What is the relatioonship between export and economic growth?. Has export contributed anything to Cameroon’s economic growth ?These issues among others, will form the foundation for this study. It involve an indepth analysis of Cameroon’s exports and economic performance from 1980 and the search for alternative export arrangements. Readers will find this piece attractive, educative ,informing and exciting Fall 2005
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Dedication……………………………………………………………………………………………..111
List of Tables………………………………………………………………………………………..V111
List of figures…………………………………………………………………………………………..1X
List of Abbreviations…………………………………………………………………………………..X1
Acknowledgement…………………………………………………………………………………..X111
Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………....................XV
Chapter 1: Introduction …………………………………………………………………..1
1.0 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………1
1.1 Background of Cameroon’s economic growth……………………………………………………..2
1.2 Research Problem ………………………………………………………………………………….5
1.3. Objectives of the study……………………………………………………………………………..6
1.4 Justification and policy relevance………………………………………………………………….7
1.5 Research methodology …………………………………………………………………………….8
Chapter 2: Review of Literature and Conceptual Framework……………….9
2.0 Literature Review………………………………………………………………………...9
2.1. Impetus to import substitution industrialization strategy………………………………………..10
2.2. Justification for export diversification…………………………………………………………..11
2.3. Justification for export-led growth………………………………………………………………14
2.4. Conceptual framework: …………………………………………………………………………16
2.4.0 The granger causality concept as measure for export-led growth…………………………….16
2.4.1 Operationalisation ofconcept…………………………………………………………………..18
2.4.1.0 Economic growth……………………………………………………………………………18
2.4.1.0.0 Measuring the GDP………………………………………………………………………….20
2.3.1.1 The concept of exports ……………………………………………………………………….20
Chapter 3 :The Evolution of Cameroon’s exports and its influence on Economic Growth since Independence………………………………………...22
3.0 :Phase 1:The post Independence period (The period of rapid growth 1961-1985)...22
3.0.0 Periodic trade policy and economic orientations 1961-1985…………………………………...23
3.0.1 Economic development plans and the evolution of export 1960-1985…………………………23
3.0.2 Sectoral contributions and exports analysis…………………………………………………….24
3.0.3 The evolution of agricultural export……………………………………………………………25
3.0.4 The evolution of industrial exports……………………………………………………………..26
3.0.5 Economic performance and growth…………………………………………………………….27
3.1: Phase 2: the period of Economic Recession. 1986-1994……………………………...29
3.1.0 Causes of the economic crisis…………………………………………………………………..29
3.1.1 Government Response…………………………………………………………………………..30
3.1.1.0 Export diversification………………………………………………………………………….30
3.1.1.1 Structural Adjustment and economic liberalism………………………………………………31
3.1.2 :The evolution of total exports, Export earnings and GDP growth 1985 to 1995……...33
3.1.3 :The evolution of macroeconomic indicators…………………………………………..34
3.1.3.0 Trade balance………………………………………………………………………………….35
3.1.3.1 Balance of payment……………………………………………………………………………36
3.1.3.2 Economic growth (Real and GDP growth)……………………………………………………37
3.1.3.3 External and Internal debts……………………………………………………………………38
3.1.3.4 Gross domestic investment (Total factor productivity)……………………………………….39
3.1.3.5 Inflation and Public Consumption…………………………………………………………….39
3.1.4 : Export earning Instability and the instability of the GDP…………………………..39
3.2 : Phase 3; the period of gradual recover, 1995-2005………………………………….41
3.2.0 : Structural reforms and recent economic development………………………………..41
3.2.1 Key structural reforms………………………………………………………………………….41
3.2.1.0 Incentives and trade policies…………………………………………………………………42
3.2.1.1 Financial sector reforms……………………………………………………………………..42
3.2.1.2 Privatization…………………………………………………………………………………43
3.2.1.3 The energy sector reforms…………………………………………………………………….43
3.2.2.0 The transport sector……………………………………………………………………………43
3.2.2.1 The forestry sector…………………………………………………………………………….43
3.3 Recent Economic Development…………………………………………………………………...44
3.3.0 The Oil sector…………………………………………………………………………………....44
3.3.1 Agricultural sector……………………………………………………………………………….45
3.3.2.Forestry and biodiversity……………………………………………………………………......45
3.3.3 The secondary sector……………………………………………………………………………47
3.3.4 The tertiary sector……………………………………………………………………………….47
3.4 External Position………………………………………………………………………………….49
Chapter 4: Economic Structure and geographical patterns of Cameroon’s exports………………………………………………………………………….51
4.0. Geographical location…………………………………………………………………………….51
4.1 Country specific statistics (Profile)………………………………………………………………..51
4.2 Economic Viability. Potentials and Pitfalls……………………………………………………….53
4.3 The incident of poverty and economic predicament…....................................................................55
4.4 The structure of the Economy ………………………………………………………………….....56
4.4.0 The economy, opportunities, obstacles and options…………………………………………….56
4.4.1 The trade and investment environment…………………………………………………………60
4.4.2 Trade related policy measures…………………………………………………………………...61
4.4.3 The Potentials for export-led growth and comparative advantage……………………………...63
4.5 Government’s Role in the economy……………………………………………………………….64
4.6 Balance of payment situation 1996-2005………………………………………………………...65
4.7 Economic Reforms……………………………………………………………………………….65
4.8 Debt rate and poverty…………………………………………………………………………….66
4.13 The geographical Patterns of Cameroon’s exports………………………………….66
4.13.0 Trade with The European Union……………………………………………………………….67
4.13.1 Trade with the United States and the Americas………………………………………………..67
4.13.2 Trade with Asian countries…………………………………………………………………….67
4.13.3 Trade with Fellow African countries…………………………………………………………..67
CHAPTER 5: Evaluation of the Impact of Exports on economicgrowth……..68
5.0 The relationship between export and economic growth in Cameroon…………………………….68
5.1 The measuresments of the impact of exports……………………………………………………...69
5.1.0 Economic effects. Key macroeconomic issues affecting growth……………………………….69
5.1.0.0 Growth and employment effects………………………………………………………………69
5.1.9.1 Balance of payment effects………………………………………………………………........71
5.1.0.2 Aggregate output effects………………………………………………………………………72
5.1.0.3 The effects on gross domestic investment…………………………………………………….73
5.1.0.3.0 The industrial sector effects…………………………………………………………………74
5.1.0.4 Inflation and public consumption effects……………………………………………………..76
5.1.0.5 Real growth and GDP growth effect…………………………………………………………..77
5.1.0.6 Export Earning instability and effects on growth……………………………………………..78
5.1.0.8 Debt and privatization effects…………………………………………………………………79
Chapter 6: Conclusion……………………………………………………........81
6.0 Summary…………………………………………………………………………………….........81
6.1 Recommendations………………………………………………………………………………...82
6.2 Policy implications and the benefits of export-led growth………………………………………..85
6.3 Limitations………………………………………………………………………………………..86
6.4 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………...86
Apendix………………………………………………………………………………………………..88
REFERENCES………………………………………………………………………………………..92
